Skip to content

Run CI on 14 approved PRs merged together (not for merging) - #2885

Draft
MaxGhenis wants to merge 263 commits into
mainfrom
hub-integration-1106
Draft

MaxGhenis wants to merge 263 commits into
mainfrom
hub-integration-1106

Conversation

@MaxGhenis

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

I merged 14 approved pull requests onto main at 5c0850da5 on this branch, so CI can test them as one tree. Please don't merge it: I'll close it and delete the branch when the run finishes, and post the result here first.

I merged them in this order:

No pair of these has a text conflict. The order above, its reverse and four shuffled orders all end at the same tree, fc40d74a4, so CI here tests what landing all 14 produces.

I left out the other five approved pull requests. #1966, #2002, #2828 and #2845 each conflict with one or more of the 14, and #2010 contains #2007, which still needs a review.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_price_base_year.py::test_reform_changes_the_base_year

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 30 commits October 10, 2026 21:07
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A mutation that opened the leaver routes to a student who fails the
entry condition (reg. 5(3A)) passed every test: the grid fixed the entry
age at 17. The grid now also draws a course begun at 19, with the date
fact set directly, and asserts that such a student never qualifies.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A mutation that read a 19th birthday on 1 September as its own
"1 September following" was caught by the calendar property test only.
Case 11 pins the edge in YAML too.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…nto cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Brings in #2285's review round 2 head (212db88).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Brings in #2285's review round 2 head through the item 1 branch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…to qyp-income-support-exclusion

Brings in the item 2 grid fix and #2285's review round 2 head.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ncome-support-exclusion

Brings in the 1 September YAML case.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…outes

Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…lusion

Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged, through items 1 and 2.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…e education

Review round 1 of #2301: the formula took failing the non-advanced
education test as having left education, so a 16-year-old in full-time
advanced education working 24 hours a week lost the reg. 4 period. Reg.
5(4)(a) bars work only for a person "having ceased to receive full-time
education or approved training", and full-time education at a school or
college counts at any level (reg. 5(5)). Reg. 4(2) lifts the first
condition only. The 20 weeks of reg. 5(3)(b) are for a person who has
ceased. The property oracle had the same conflation and is fixed with it;
the grid now draws a course begun at 19, as its comment says. YAML Cases
15 and 16 pin the advanced student.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…r 20

Review round 1 of #2300: setting the 19th-birthday fact for one person
gave everyone else in the situation false (the default), so another
19-year-old student silently lost the Pension Credit and Universal Credit
status. The formula gives true for everyone under 20 on 6 October, which
is everyone the age limit lets be a qualifying young person, so true is
now the default for the fact and for the two terminal-date variables that
read it. A partial setting then leaves everyone else where the formula
puts them. Tested from age alone for ages 0 to 25 and all months, and in a
mixed household (property test and YAML Case 12).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Review round 1 of #2302: receives_income_support_in_own_right stayed true
under a reform that neutralizes income_support, so a young person's
report still excluded them from the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC
qualifying young person status. It now also needs Income Support not to
be neutralized, as is_on_income_support already does for another member's
own claim. New test: the same student is excluded with Income Support and
qualifies for all three once a reform removes it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Case 3's parent, not set, now takes the default (true): harmless, since
every reader is behind the qualifying young person age limit. The older
child_qualifying_young_person.yaml case left its after-terminal-date
person unset and relied on the old false default; it now sets the input
explicitly. The docstrings now say the default is the formula's value
under 20 and that older people are excluded before it is read.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…routes

Brings in #2387 (only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy
means tests), which this PR needs, and main e01f2f5 with it. The one
conflict, the means-test property docstring, keeps both changes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings in #2279's head 9d2fadb.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ent's means tests

Review round 1 of #2299: a young person who qualifies through reg. 7 and
works 24 hours stays a young person, so their earnings must not enter the
parent's Housing Benefit, Income Support or Council Tax Reduction income.
#2387, merged in here, makes that so; Case 11 now has £20,000 of earnings
and asserts the three applicable incomes are nil.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…outes

Brings in #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head 9d2fadb.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings in #2279's head 9d2fadb and main e01f2f5 with it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings in main e01f2f5.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…lusion

Brings in #2301 and #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head. The
one conflict, the CTC QYP docstring, keeps both changes: the ceased-
education wording and the Income Support own-right input.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings in #2300's round 1 fixes and main e01f2f5.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…education

Review round 2 of #2301: the formula took apprenticeship as ceasing
education, so a 16-year-old apprentice still on a college course and
working 24 hours or more lost the reg. 4 period. Education received by
virtue of employment is left out of the first condition (reg.
5(3)(a)(ii)), which reg. 4(2) lifts; reg. 5(5) counts a course at a
school or college without that exclusion, so the apprentice has not
"ceased to receive full-time education" and the reg. 5(4)(a) bar does
not apply. The property oracle had the same assumption and is fixed with
it. YAML Case 5 now expects the apprentice on a course to qualify (£3,455);
new Case 17 keeps an apprentice who has left every course out.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Review round 2 of #2300: a programme-level terminal-date variable set for
one person gives everyone else its default (true), not their date fact, so
a student whose date fact was set false became eligible again. No default
can keep the formula for people left unset, so the two programme variables
now say so and tell users setting both to set the programme variable for
everyone whose status matters. Invariant 5 is qualified, and a crossed test
shows both the hazard and the documented use, for each programme.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…routes

Brings in #2387 at 78a8cca, which carries main. The one conflict, the
legacy readers property test, takes #2279's current version: this PR's
own commits do not touch it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
After main's benefit cap work, two cases asserted that a 16-year-old who
has left education is not a Housing Benefit young person, so their DLA or
armed forces independence payment does not lift the cap, and the
exemption's docstring named this PR's issue (#2287) as the gap. Under reg.
4 they are a Child Benefit qualifying young person until the 31 August
after their 16th birthday, and so a Housing Benefit young person (HB Regs
2006 reg. 19), whose benefit lifts the cap (reg. 75F(1)). Both
expectations and the docstring now say so; Universal Credit's exemption
is unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…outes

Brings in #2299 on main with #2279 and #2387.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
claude and others added 27 commits November 5, 2026 06:18
No conflicts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HKeDniUizUaZcFw4Q
No conflicts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HKeDniUizUaZcFw4Q
is_on_income_support gives the benefit unit's calculated award only to
whichever of the claimant and partner receives it, so the fragment says so.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HKeDniUizUaZcFw4Q
It brings main 47a2817. No conflicts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HKeDniUizUaZcFw4Q
No conflicts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HKeDniUizUaZcFw4Q
The guard's docstring now says it looks for draws and not for the clock
(#2875). The comments on the splitmix64 and Universal Credit entries say
which constants the scan recognises, which entries reach the hash and how
Simulation.__init__ applies the modifier. Two test rows follow
PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#10447 at 221f2fe44, and a changelog fragment
records the guard.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
inflation_adjustment and inflation_adjustment_ahc read the base year from
gov.simulation.price_base_year instead of the clock, and
inflation_adjustment_ahc uses one index on both dates. A code-health test
fails on any clock read under policyengine_uk/variables.

Fixes #2875

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KUHRad4GgGptdPAWP
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A function-local import overwrote a module-level one in the flat alias map, so
`import math as datetime` inside a helper hid a module-level
datetime.datetime.now(). Each name now resolves in the innermost scope that
imports it, and a class body's imports reach only that class body.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Nov 6, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 5c0850da5f against head 2df07f2000, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 49 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
VAT excluding private school fees 2026-27 £256.87bn £249.47bn -£7.39bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2027-28 £266.33bn £258.67bn -£7.66bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2031-32 £291.59bn £283.21bn -£8.38bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2030-31 £285.24bn £277.04bn -£8.20bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2029-30 £278.97bn £270.95bn -£8.02bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2028-29 £272.70bn £264.86bn -£7.83bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2025-26 £249.37bn £242.22bn -£7.16bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2025-26 £363.07bn £355.89bn -£7.18bn
gov_balance 2025-26 £363.07bn £355.89bn -£7.18bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2026-27 £389.72bn £382.30bn -£7.42bn
gov_balance 2026-27 £389.72bn £382.30bn -£7.42bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2027-28 £430.51bn £422.84bn -£7.67bn
gov_balance 2027-28 £430.51bn £422.84bn -£7.67bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2028-29 £457.24bn £449.40bn -£7.85bn
gov_balance 2028-29 £457.24bn £449.40bn -£7.85bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2029-30 £487.94bn £479.90bn -£8.04bn
gov_balance 2029-30 £487.94bn £479.90bn -£8.04bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2030-31 £516.56bn £508.34bn -£8.22bn
gov_balance 2030-31 £516.56bn £508.34bn -£8.22bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2031-32 £542.31bn £533.91bn -£8.39bn
gov_balance 2031-32 £542.31bn £533.91bn -£8.39bn
Government receipts, each component once 2025-26 £892.00bn £884.83bn -£7.17bn
gov_tax 2025-26 £892.00bn £884.83bn -£7.17bn
gov_tax 2026-27 £934.66bn £927.25bn -£7.41bn
Government receipts, each component once 2026-27 £934.66bn £927.25bn -£7.41bn
Government receipts, each component once 2027-28 £980.50bn £972.84bn -£7.67bn
gov_tax 2027-28 £980.50bn £972.84bn -£7.67bn
gov_tax 2028-29 £1,015.93bn £1,008.09bn -£7.84bn
Government receipts, each component once 2028-29 £1,015.93bn £1,008.09bn -£7.84bn
Government receipts, each component once 2029-30 £1,054.24bn £1,046.20bn -£8.03bn
gov_tax 2029-30 £1,054.24bn £1,046.20bn -£8.03bn
Government receipts, each component once 2030-31 £1,091.56bn £1,083.34bn -£8.22bn
gov_tax 2030-31 £1,091.56bn £1,083.34bn -£8.22bn
gov_tax 2031-32 £1,124.89bn £1,116.50bn -£8.39bn
Government receipts, each component once 2031-32 £1,124.89bn £1,116.50bn -£8.39bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat 2028-29 £27.03bn £26.24bn -£783.3m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat 2025-26 £24.69bn £23.98bn -£715.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat 2031-32 £28.91bn £28.07bn -£838.1m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat 2027-28 £26.42bn £25.66bn -£765.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat 2026-27 £25.51bn £24.77bn -£739.5m

9 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax -£16.9m -£17.6m -£7.6m -£8.7m -£18.4m -£18.5m -£9.1m
VAT excluding private school fees -£7.16bn -£7.39bn -£7.66bn -£7.83bn -£8.02bn -£8.20bn -£8.38bn

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Credit 0 -£0 0 -£0 0 -£3 -£1
Universal Credit +£2 0 +£2 0 0 0 0
Housing Benefit 0 0 -£0 0 0 -£0 0
Council Tax Reduction -£1.0m -£1.0m -£1.2m -£1.3m -£1.4m -£1.5m -£1.5m
Child Benefit +£5.2m +£5.4m +£5.6m +£5.8m +£5.9m +£6.1m +£6.2m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council Tax Reduction -480 -188 -188 -189 -1.2k -401 -402
Child Benefit +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£7.17bn -£7.41bn -£7.67bn -£7.84bn -£8.03bn -£8.22bn -£8.39bn
Government spending +£4.2m † +£4.4m † +£4.5m † +£4.5m † +£4.5m † +£4.6m † +£4.7m †
Government balance, each receipt once -£7.18bn † -£7.42bn † -£7.67bn † -£7.85bn † -£8.04bn † -£8.22bn † -£8.39bn †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£7.17bn -£7.41bn -£7.67bn -£7.84bn -£8.03bn -£8.22bn -£8.39bn
household_tax -£16.9m -£17.6m -£7.6m -£8.7m -£18.4m -£18.5m -£9.1m
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£16.9m -£17.6m -£7.6m -£8.7m -£18.4m -£18.5m -£9.1m
gov_spending +£4.2m † +£4.4m † +£4.5m † +£4.5m † +£4.5m † +£4.6m † +£4.7m †
household_benefits +£4.2m † +£4.4m † +£4.5m † +£4.5m † +£4.5m † +£4.6m † +£4.7m †
gov_balance -£7.18bn † -£7.42bn † -£7.67bn † -£7.85bn † -£8.04bn † -£8.22bn † -£8.39bn †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income +£21.1m † +£22.0m † +£12.1m † +£13.2m † +£22.9m † +£23.1m † +£13.8m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) +£20.6m +£21.4m +£11.5m +£12.7m +£22.5m +£22.7m +£13.4m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -4.7k -4.7k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -1.9k -1.9k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -2.8k -2.8k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs +0.0000 +0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 -0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household +£0.29 † +£0.32 † +£0.31 † +£0.30 † -£0.25 † +£0.29 † +£0.27 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household +£0.27 † +£0.27 † +£0.26 † -£2.99 † -£0.98 † +£0.23 † +£0.22 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household +£0.45 † +£0.51 † +£0.51 † +£5.13 † +£0.53 † +£0.54 † +£0.54 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household +£0.13 † -£1.29 † +£0.13 † +£0.30 † +£0.12 † +£0.11 † +£0.10 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household -£0.09 † +£1.80 † -£0.12 † -£0.51 † -£0.06 † -£0.09 † -£0.09 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£3.72 † -£3.98 † -£3.98 † -£4.15 † +£5.36 † -£4.48 † -£4.40 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household +£3.39 † +£3.94 † +£3.74 † +£3.74 † -£4.18 † +£4.08 † +£4.22 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household +£1.41 † +£3.87 † +£1.39 † +£1.37 † +£1.35 † +£1.36 † +£1.43 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household +£1.32 † -£1.20 † +£0.64 † +£0.81 † +£0.87 † -£5.03 † +£0.03 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household +£2.58 † +£1.88 † +£0.34 † +£0.57 † +£3.42 † -£98 † +£1.30 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp +£3.7m +£2.8m +£10,665 +£11,966 +£31,773 +£28,760 +£25,686
Raise higher rate by 1pp -£732 -£1,158 +£1,827 +£3,750 +£3,009 -£1,268 +£818
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year -£3.0m -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.2m +£1.2m -£0.3m -£1.6m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£1.5m -£1.4m -£1.3m -£1.2m -£1.1m -£1.0m -£0.9m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£51,948 -£51,102 -£51,722 -£51,948 -£51,530 -£52,021 -£53,794
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% -£317 -£1,916 -£260 +£430 +£2,279 +£2,165 +£1,231
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£715.8m -£739.5m -£765.8m -£783.3m -£801.5m -£819.7m -£838.1m
Raise additional rate by 3pp -£473 +£1,145 -£636 +£1,078 +£1,482 -£1,457 +£721
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£179 -£1 +£59 -£71 +£221 +£37 -£105
Raise the State Pension by 10% -£1.3m -£0.2m -£0.6m -£0.5m +£0.1m +£0.2m +£3,197

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£3.7m +£2.8m +£157 +£15 -£194 +£58 -£51
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£149 +£517 -£3 -£21 -£253 -£243 -£286
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax -£2.9m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.1m +£1.3m -£0.3m -£1.6m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit +£1.7m +£1.6m +£1.4m +£1.3m +£1.2m +£1.1m +£1.0m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit 0 +£0 -£2 +£0 0 0 +£1
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat -£715.8m -£739.5m -£765.8m -£783.3m -£801.5m -£819.7m -£838.1m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax -£155 +£469 +£1 -£1 +£0 -£293 -£55
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit +£0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 3 0 +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 4 0 0 0 0 0 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 6 0 0 fewer than 10 households change 0 0 0 0
Decile 7 0 +£1 (+0.0%) 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 8 +£1 (+0.0%) +£2 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 9 +£1 (+0.0%) +£2 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) 0
Decile 10 +£3 (+0.0%) +£2 (+0.0%) 0 +£1 (+0.0%) +£3 (+0.0%) +£3 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%)
all +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) 0 0 +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) 0
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.9% 0.0%
2026-27 0.7% 0.0%
2027-28 0.3% 0.0%
2028-29 0.3% 0.0%
2029-30 0.4% 0.0%
2030-31 0.5% 0.0%
2031-32 0.3% 0.0%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-52,314,332 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,150,722 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,043,426 in total
Counted-once check

The check raised each of 92 components by £1 per unit in 2026-27 and read every head of its totals household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A response that is not finite breaks every rule. The check measures a head that breaks a rule twice more: once holding every other head at its baseline value, and once holding every other head at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. The head fails where either measurement still shows the response. The check cannot hold a head at a value that is not finite. In each unit where another head is not finite after the first £1, it holds that head at its baseline value, and the second measurement judges no household the unit belongs to. There a head fails wherever it first broke a rule, or wherever the check could not confirm whether its response contains the component. 0 failed and the check skipped 0.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 5c0850da5f uk 2.175.7 (files caf48f036f2e), core 3.34.1, py 3.13.18 aarch64 be7a15d6f63f 3bcfb3473960 2534.37s
head #2885 merged into main 2df07f2000 uk 2.175.7 (files 24a0ecdaf80d), core 3.34.1, py 3.13.18 aarch64 be7a15d6f63f 93bd0b3e0f8d 2877.47s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.45bn £315.21bn £335.82bn £351.27bn £366.94bn £385.34bn £399.98bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £242.22bn £249.47bn £258.67bn £264.86bn £270.95bn £277.04bn £283.21bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.20bn £2.26bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.13bn £26.00bn £26.83bn £26.51bn £25.78bn £24.63bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.72bn £129.48bn £132.98bn £136.65bn £140.41bn
Pension Credit £6.21bn £6.46bn £6.68bn £6.82bn £6.89bn £7.07bn £7.22bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.48bn £81.56bn £84.02bn £86.07bn £87.22bn £88.76bn £89.38bn
Housing Benefit £8.56bn £8.51bn £8.83bn £9.05bn £9.28bn £9.56bn £9.83bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.20bn £2.32bn £2.45bn £2.58bn £2.73bn £2.87bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.27bn £5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Scottish Carer Supplement £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.20bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.01bn £18.40bn £18.84bn £19.26bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.59bn £3.71bn £3.78bn £3.86bn £3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.37bn £2.43bn £2.48bn £2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Household Energy Payment £0.00bn £2.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,489k 1,484k 1,476k 1,454k 1,452k 1,457k 1,466k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,342k 6,418k 6,408k 6,369k 6,363k 6,343k 6,295k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,182k 1,181k 1,164k 1,164k 1,166k 1,168k
Council Tax Reduction 3,179k 3,199k 3,205k 3,218k 3,232k 3,244k 3,251k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,060k 1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Scottish Carer Supplement 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,124k 8,121k 8,121k 8,131k 8,146k 8,162k 8,179k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 353k 350k 348k 337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,043k 1,027k 1,014k 1,009k 1,011k 1,009k 993k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 796k 797k 798k 798k 792k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,072k 1,073k 1,076k 1,079k 1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 150k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Household Energy Payment 0k 21,065k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £884.83bn £927.25bn £972.84bn £1,008.09bn £1,046.20bn £1,083.34bn £1,116.50bn
Government spending £528.94bn † £544.95bn † £550.00bn † £558.69bn † £566.30bn † £575.00bn † £582.59bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £355.89bn † £382.30bn † £422.84bn † £449.40bn † £479.90bn † £508.34bn † £533.91bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £884.83bn £927.25bn £972.84bn £1,008.09bn £1,046.20bn £1,083.34bn £1,116.50bn
household_tax £491.96bn £520.39bn £551.20bn £576.00bn £600.98bn £626.68bn £648.41bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.13bn £512.26bn £542.81bn £566.94bn £591.70bn £617.14bn £638.60bn
gov_spending £528.94bn † £544.95bn † £550.00bn † £558.69bn † £566.30bn † £575.00bn † £582.59bn †
household_benefits £528.94bn † £544.95bn † £550.00bn † £558.69bn † £566.30bn † £575.00bn † £582.59bn †
gov_balance £355.89bn † £382.30bn † £422.84bn † £449.40bn † £479.90bn † £508.34bn † £533.91bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.26bn † £1,687.12bn † £1,714.69bn † £1,746.68bn † £1,777.82bn † £1,816.09bn † £1,858.69bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.15bn £1,499.13bn £1,530.10bn £1,564.36bn £1,597.01bn £1,634.66bn £1,675.62bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.3% 15.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.7% 22.1% 23.3% 22.9% 23.1% 23.2% 23.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.1% 13.8% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.4% 14.0% 13.8% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.1% 22.0% 22.6% 22.9% 23.1% 23.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.3% 32.3% 32.5% 32.9% 33.4% 34.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.8% 21.6% 21.9% 22.0% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.0% 16.0% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.9% 22.8% 23.3% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.5% 14.1% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.1% 14.0% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 21.0% 21.2% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 31.1% 31.1% 31.0% 31.1% 31.2% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.8% 11.7% 11.8% 12.1%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,273k 10,779k 11,404k 11,368k 11,478k 11,516k 11,653k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,686k 3,312k 3,494k 3,443k 3,479k 3,500k 3,547k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,963k 5,893k 6,309k 6,363k 6,420k 6,431k 6,522k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,575k 1,601k 1,562k 1,579k 1,585k 1,584k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,944k 14,607k 15,318k 15,729k 15,946k 16,150k 16,440k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,975k 4,682k 4,837k 4,888k 4,945k 5,040k 5,179k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,463k 8,465k 8,976k 9,348k 9,496k 9,588k 9,715k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,506k 1,461k 1,506k 1,494k 1,506k 1,522k 1,546k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,746k 11,084k 11,390k 11,359k 11,417k 11,418k 11,653k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,870k 3,421k 3,494k 3,441k 3,464k 3,452k 3,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,156k 6,011k 6,302k 6,358k 6,389k 6,390k 6,522k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,719k 1,651k 1,594k 1,560k 1,564k 1,576k 1,584k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,864k 14,560k 14,736k 14,807k 14,879k 15,019k 15,236k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,944k 4,660k 4,658k 4,660k 4,677k 4,705k 4,803k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,431k 8,444k 8,684k 8,820k 8,877k 8,971k 9,064k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,489k 1,456k 1,393k 1,327k 1,325k 1,342k 1,369k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3078 0.3051 0.3057 0.3056 0.3061 0.3067 0.3083
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,681 † £18,010 † £17,918 † £18,160 † £18,301 † £18,547 † £18,732 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,942 † £29,024 † £28,623 † £29,001 † £29,286 † £29,700 † £30,090 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,317 † £35,427 † £36,076 † £36,528 † £36,996 † £37,682 † £38,154 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,935 † £40,686 † £41,716 † £42,770 † £43,423 † £44,111 † £44,446 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,235 † £45,557 † £46,033 † £46,930 † £47,714 † £48,578 † £50,274 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,927 † £49,236 † £50,928 † £51,979 † £52,968 † £53,971 † £54,709 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,662 † £56,581 † £57,449 † £57,652 † £58,746 † £59,672 † £61,100 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,786 † £70,809 † £71,867 † £73,515 † £73,889 † £75,326 † £77,181 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,890 † £81,011 † £80,860 † £82,646 † £85,464 † £86,940 † £89,508 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £116,863 † £120,162 † £124,545 † £126,420 † £125,756 † £128,269 † £130,694 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.63bn £6.85bn £7.03bn £7.25bn £7.49bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.22bn £4.44bn £4.71bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.81bn £-3.93bn £-3.99bn £-4.05bn £-4.11bn £-4.24bn £-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.38bn £-1.30bn £-1.18bn £-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.77bn £-21.32bn £-21.75bn £-22.00bn £-22.35bn £-22.75bn £-22.94bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.71bn £12.01bn £12.31bn £12.62bn £13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.17bn £24.97bn £25.86bn £26.46bn £27.07bn £27.68bn £28.31bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.41bn £3.61bn £3.85bn £4.14bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.06bn £-3.22bn £-3.30bn £-3.39bn £-3.48bn £-3.53bn £-3.54bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.76bn £-7.99bn £-8.22bn £-8.44bn £-8.79bn £-8.52bn £-8.86bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.79bn £7.00bn £7.20bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.94bn £-4.07bn £-4.13bn £-4.18bn £-4.22bn £-4.40bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.74bn £21.31bn £21.79bn £22.05bn £22.37bn £22.78bn £22.99bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn £12.94bn £13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £23.98bn £24.77bn £25.66bn £26.24bn £26.85bn £27.46bn £28.07bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn £3.86bn £4.12bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.06bn £3.22bn £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.53bn £3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.03bn £12.46bn £12.96bn

This branch has not been deployed

No deployments
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

2 participants