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Run CI on 27 pull requests merged together (not for merging) - #2887

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@MaxGhenis

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Nov 6, 2026 •

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This draft now sits on main at a866277e9, which holds #1966, so CI can test 27 open pull requests as one tree. Please don't merge it: I'll close it and delete the branch when the run finishes, and post the result here first.

I merged these in order, and the ones after "with" arrive inside the pull request they follow:

No single pull request's CI tests these combinations, and the merges here fix them:

#1966 and #2834 leave two readings of the tax on pay in place. #2834 deducts the tax the pay adds, and #1966 takes the UC split, with earnings as the lowest slice, so the Child Benefit charge no longer reaches a Scottish working-age award. I kept both here, and the difference needs its own decision.

Each fix moves into the real merge of whichever pull request in its pair lands second. #2828's head already carries its fixes for #1966's route, main's Step 6 order test and the 2019 row of the pensioner tariff table.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_price_base_year.py::test_reform_changes_the_base_year

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 30 commits November 2, 2026 15:28
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Cases 4, 5, 6, 12, 13 and 14 of esa_income_pension_age.yaml assert a
full-year income-related ESA award in 2026-27. Each ESA reporter now has
the art. 3A(2) appointee saving, so the 1 July 2026 abolition leaves the
award payable for the whole year and each case still tests the
pension-age bar and the Pension Credit condition.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6G23mTmYu4Zu1DbAPa
…s test

#2340 reads a basic State Pension recipient aged 80 or over as reporting
the 25p age addition. The basic reporter is 85, so it now reports the
full basic rate plus the addition, and the test checks that the model
pays the addition at the data year's 25p in every year.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6GwwVa9CRxP94r4i4J
The 2026 examples of test_esa_income_pension_age_properties.py draw saved
awards, and the three 2026 example tests give each reporter the art. 3A(2)
appointee saving, so each award stays payable for the whole year and the
tests still check the pension-age bar and the Pension Credit condition.
legacy_award_work_reference.esa_abolition_claim reads the saving.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6G23mTmYu4Zu1DbAPa
…ls test

The household's stocks-and-shares ISA reaches Universal Credit capital
through share_like_capital, which UC values less its sale-expense rate
(UC Regulations 2013 reg. 49(1)(a)). Build the expected capital from
savings, the cash ISA and the ISA less that rate, read from the
parameters, and keep the check that capital keeps one ratio to savings.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6Kxyq1frfihPSQorLM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6G23mTmYu4Zu1DbAPa
FA 2004 s. 192(4A) raises the Scottish basic rate limit and the Scottish
rate limits above it, where a Scottish rate above the Scottish basic rate
is chargeable. The docstring and one comment said "the Scottish rate
limits". Text only; the AST with docstrings blanked matches 3b54d53.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The excess comes in whole pence only for a limit in whole pence. numpy
reports both nextafter from zero and spacing of the subnormal it returns
as underflow, so both stay inside the errstate blocks. Text only; the AST
with docstrings blanked matches df78930 in both files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
On macOS arm64 numpy reports np.spacing(np.float32(0)) as underflow, at the
locked 2.4.6 and at 2.1.3, 2.4.2 and 2.5.4; CI's Linux arm64 runners pass the
same check at 2.4.6. Under the strict state in test_stored_pence.py, stored_pence
of a zero amount then raises on a Mac, so both zero tests fail there. The Class 1
tolerance in carers_allowance_earnings takes the same step for a person with no
NI income. Both now work it out under np.errstate(under="ignore"), which changes
no value and restores numpy's error state when the block ends.

At macOS arm64 and numpy 2.4.6, test_stored_pence.py gives 2 failed on the two
zero tests before this commit and 11 passed after it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Cut the changelog fragment to one sentence, as the repository's rule asks,
rewrap the one docstring line over 88 characters, and state what the
generator comment holds for inferred roles too. Text only; the test file's
AST with docstrings blanked matches e700316.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
state_pension_reported's documentation says the three components divide the
report by 52, but on this tree they read it less any age addition. Say so.
Rewrite the test docstring's sentence on the ages at which the model gives a
woman the basic type. Text only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
WRA 2007 Sch 1 para 6(1)(c) and (d) make the two awards exclusive. Where
the couple's Pension Credit without the award is nil, the model pays the
award and no Pension Credit, whatever the award would add through the SPC
Regs 2002 Sch VI para 4(1)(a)(vii) disregard. Case 18 now expects that,
case 25 states the para 4(2) limit, and the combined property requires no
family to have both.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KPXgYTCw1EWx4JK8T
Keeps #2007's reg 74(3) and 74(5) sentences and #2017's in-unit wording.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KBpj2nEGrPeiuxZmW
Takes #2010's side for its own five files: the merge's second base
reverts them to main, which #2010's versions already contain.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KBpj2nEGrPeiuxZmW
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…eduction

T(E, S, U) now zeroes income_tax_charges beside the uncounted income: the
High Income Child Benefit Charge recovers Child Benefit, which the pensioner
schemes do not count, and the pension annual allowance charge falls on
contributions. Add YAML cases for the charge, a working-age partner's Class 1
in a pensioner scheme, reg 37(1)'s personal relief with Marriage Allowance,
and the Scottish Marriage Allowance cliff; a property test that a Child
Benefit claim leaves the pensioner deduction unchanged; and assert invariant
5 on a simulation with the tax cliffs held, in place of the exemption.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HngezwZWa7uwAqaXr
… contribution

LHA_allowed_bedrooms reads is_benefit_unit_non_dependant_for_universal_credit,
the definition uc_non_dep_deductions uses, and counts an in-unit
non-dependant of a family that makes no claim in the claim that counts the
household's non-dependants, as uc_non_dep_deductions does. Adds the adult
son's case through final UC and household income, its own-unit control, a
non-claiming head's son in a sharer's claim, and properties tying rooms to
contributions and to the coding of the benefit unit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KBpj2nEGrPeiuxZmW
Keep #2279's own-right documentation for Pension Credit's young person
and this branch's 1 September end; drop the sentence that said the model
did not apply that end.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6Jra6ok6eCQvZUMMLg
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6Jra6ok6eCQvZUMMLg
…date

Add YAML cases 13 and 14: a 19-year-old at school before the 1 September
following their 19th birthday who reports their own Universal Credit or
income-related ESA is a qualifying young person for neither programme.
State Income Support as the exception to Universal Credit and Pension
Credit agreeing, assert the agreement grid holds nobody on it, and test
that own Income Support in 2025-26 ends the Pension Credit status only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6Jra6ok6eCQvZUMMLg
The UC qualifying young person predicate now skips a report of income-related
ESA or Housing Benefit when a reform neutralises esa_income or housing_benefit,
and checks Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit each against its own
variable or tax_credits, in the couple branch too. New Python tests cover each
benefit under a reform that neutralises it.

Also: Case 13 pins a Scottish CTR award that the reg 5 reading raises; the
qualifying generator draws no reg 5(5) report; review wording rows.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HB6mSfknnmvFfWQja
The specified-benefit oracle now counts a young person's income-based JSA
report as an own award only in a year the model pays income-based JSA, as
the UC predicate does under SI 2014/1230 reg 28.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HB6mSfknnmvFfWQja
…B CTR case

Main's case predates the in-unit non-dependant deduction: the mother and
father are the grandmother's non-dependants, one deduction of 5.20 a week.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KBpj2nEGrPeiuxZmW
…he counting claim

A family that is not benunit_is_rent_liable (no rent input) can still be
the claim uc_non_dependants_counted selects; family_rooms already holds the
bedroom there, as uc_non_dep_deductions charges the contribution once.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KBpj2nEGrPeiuxZmW
…ing alone

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6KBpj2nEGrPeiuxZmW
The exact reg 28 property now gives each qualifying member at most one
existing benefit report, so reg 28 leaves more of them in the test and the
property catches a couple-sum mutant again. The changelog fragment says the
predicate reads a report only while the model pays the benefit and no reform
neutralises it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6HB6mSfknnmvFfWQja
Conflicts:
- test_benefit_cap_specified_benefits_properties.py: the reference keeps
  #2299's school-leaver role for both schemes (Child Benefit reg 4) and
  #2279's UC own-award filter for older young persons.
- test_child_and_adult_definitions_properties.py: invariant 5 keeps #2299's
  Child Benefit reg 4 sentence; #2279's supplied-roles invariant stays 6.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FJSEjTyXcaymMgSqM
No conflicts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FJSEjTyXcaymMgSqM
MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits November 6, 2026 05:21
Main added this case after this branch's last CI run. With the allowances
set for the least tax, the parent's income tax falls by 100, so the case now
expects 15,935, with 7,540 on the pay and a deduction of 13,649.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…s new tests

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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github-actions Bot commented Nov 6, 2026

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 5c0850da5f against head 48c2a09abd, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 294 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
VAT excluding private school fees 2026-27 £256.87bn £249.47bn -£7.39bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2027-28 £266.33bn £258.67bn -£7.66bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2031-32 £291.59bn £283.21bn -£8.38bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2030-31 £285.24bn £277.04bn -£8.20bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2029-30 £278.97bn £270.95bn -£8.02bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2028-29 £272.70bn £264.86bn -£7.83bn
VAT excluding private school fees 2025-26 £249.37bn £242.22bn -£7.16bn
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 2026-27 £29,023 £29,842 +£818
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household 2026-27 £18,010 £17,628 -£382
Government balance, each receipt once 2025-26 £363.07bn £355.56bn -£7.51bn
gov_balance 2025-26 £363.07bn £355.56bn -£7.51bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2028-29 £457.24bn £447.98bn -£9.26bn
gov_balance 2028-29 £457.24bn £447.98bn -£9.26bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2026-27 £389.72bn £381.86bn -£7.86bn
gov_balance 2026-27 £389.72bn £381.86bn -£7.86bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2029-30 £487.94bn £478.21bn -£9.73bn
gov_balance 2029-30 £487.94bn £478.21bn -£9.73bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2027-28 £430.51bn £422.16bn -£8.35bn
gov_balance 2027-28 £430.51bn £422.16bn -£8.35bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2030-31 £516.56bn £507.07bn -£9.50bn
gov_balance 2030-31 £516.56bn £507.07bn -£9.50bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2031-32 £542.31bn £532.62bn -£9.69bn
gov_balance 2031-32 £542.31bn £532.62bn -£9.69bn
Universal Credit 2029-30 £87.22bn £88.75bn +£1.53bn
Universal Credit 2028-29 £86.07bn £87.33bn +£1.27bn
Universal Credit 2031-32 £89.38bn £90.48bn +£1.09bn
Universal Credit 2030-31 £88.76bn £89.84bn +£1.08bn
Council Tax Reduction 2025-26 3,180k 3,319k +139.6k
Council Tax Reduction 2027-28 3,205k 3,344k +138.9k
Council Tax Reduction 2028-29 3,218k 3,357k +139.2k
Council Tax Reduction 2026-27 3,199k 3,337k +137.7k
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 2027-28 £28,622 £28,865 +£243
Council Tax Reduction 2030-31 3,244k 3,381k +136.3k
Council Tax Reduction 2031-32 3,251k 3,387k +136.5k
Council Tax Reduction 2029-30 3,233k 3,369k +135.6k
Government receipts, each component once 2025-26 £892.00bn £884.82bn -£7.18bn
gov_tax 2025-26 £892.00bn £884.82bn -£7.18bn
gov_tax 2026-27 £934.66bn £927.25bn -£7.42bn
Government receipts, each component once 2026-27 £934.66bn £927.25bn -£7.42bn
Government receipts, each component once 2027-28 £980.50bn £972.81bn -£7.69bn

254 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax -£20.9m -£20.8m -£27.6m -£28.8m -£38.6m -£38.7m -£30.0m
VAT excluding private school fees -£7.16bn -£7.39bn -£7.66bn -£7.83bn -£8.02bn -£8.20bn -£8.38bn
VAT on private school fees 0 0 -£0.4m -£1.6m -£0.7m 0 +£2.0m
TV licence fee -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.2m -£0.3m -£0.1m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Credit +£1.0m +£1.0m +£1.1m +£1.0m +£0.9m +£0.8m +£0.7m
Universal Credit +£222.8m +£324.7m +£543.4m +£1.27bn +£1.53bn +£1.08bn +£1.09bn
Housing Benefit +£0.9m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.5m +£19.9m +£42.6m +£16.1m
Council Tax Reduction +£105.1m +£110.8m +£114.9m +£120.5m +£126.1m +£129.8m +£134.4m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) +£0.4m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) +£13,640 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income Support +£43,929 0 0 0 0 0 0
Carer's Allowance 0 0 0 0 0 -£512 +£6
Child Benefit +£5.2m +£5.4m +£5.6m +£5.8m +£5.9m +£6.1m +£6.2m
Scottish Child Payment +£0.3m 0 0 0 +£6.0m +£11.0m +£24.1m
Tax-Free Childcare -£0.6m -£1.4m -£0.7m 0 -£10.2m -£11.2m -£1.7m
Targeted childcare entitlement 0 0 0 0 0 0 +£7.0m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Credit +941 +943 +2.8k +2.8k +964 +1.5k +567
Universal Credit +12.5k +35.0k +51.0k +91.5k +96.8k +73.8k +69.3k
Housing Benefit +94 0 0 0 +2.0k +4.7k +1.6k
Council Tax Reduction +139.6k +137.7k +138.9k +139.2k +135.6k +136.3k +136.5k
Child Benefit +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k
Scottish Child Payment +213 0 0 0 +3.7k +6.7k +14.4k
Tax-Free Childcare -426 -16.9k -16.3k 0 -11.9k -14.9k -7.1k
Targeted childcare entitlement 0 0 0 0 0 0 +3.6k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£7.18bn -£7.42bn -£7.69bn -£7.86bn -£8.05bn -£8.24bn -£8.41bn
Government spending +£335.1m † +£440.9m † +£664.7m † +£1.39bn † +£1.68bn † +£1.26bn † +£1.28bn †
Government balance, each receipt once -£7.51bn † -£7.86bn † -£8.35bn † -£9.26bn † -£9.73bn † -£9.50bn † -£9.69bn †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£7.18bn -£7.42bn -£7.69bn -£7.86bn -£8.05bn -£8.24bn -£8.41bn
household_tax -£21.0m -£20.9m -£27.9m -£29.1m -£38.7m -£39.0m -£30.1m
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£21.0m -£20.9m -£27.9m -£29.1m -£38.7m -£39.0m -£30.1m
gov_spending +£335.1m † +£440.9m † +£664.7m † +£1.39bn † +£1.68bn † +£1.26bn † +£1.28bn †
household_benefits +£335.1m † +£440.9m † +£664.7m † +£1.39bn † +£1.68bn † +£1.26bn † +£1.28bn †
gov_balance -£7.51bn † -£7.86bn † -£8.35bn † -£9.26bn † -£9.73bn † -£9.50bn † -£9.69bn †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income +£356.1m † +£461.8m † +£692.7m † +£1.42bn † +£1.72bn † +£1.30bn † +£1.31bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) +£356.6m +£463.8m +£696.6m +£1.43bn +£1.72bn +£1.31bn +£1.30bn

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.06pp -0.10pp -0.17pp -0.17pp -0.14pp -0.07pp -0.24pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -0.18pp -0.24pp -0.43pp -0.43pp -0.33pp -0.12pp -0.60pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.04pp -0.07pp -0.12pp -0.12pp -0.10pp -0.06pp -0.17pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -0.00pp 0 0 0 -0.02pp -0.03pp -0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone -0.06pp -0.10pp -0.14pp -0.18pp -0.18pp -0.12pp -0.17pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children -0.14pp -0.22pp -0.32pp -0.34pp -0.34pp -0.16pp -0.42pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -0.05pp -0.08pp -0.11pp -0.17pp -0.17pp -0.13pp -0.12pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -0.00pp 0 0 0 -0.00pp -0.03pp -0.02pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.07pp -0.13pp -0.17pp -0.09pp -0.13pp +0.02pp -0.23pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children -0.15pp -0.35pp -0.43pp -0.27pp -0.33pp +0.10pp -0.59pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.07pp -0.08pp -0.12pp -0.09pp -0.10pp +0.00pp -0.17pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -0.00pp 0 0 +0.13pp +0.01pp +0.01pp -0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone -0.05pp -0.15pp -0.11pp -0.21pp -0.18pp -0.11pp -0.14pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -0.11pp -0.35pp -0.37pp -0.50pp -0.38pp -0.12pp -0.33pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -0.05pp -0.12pp -0.06pp -0.17pp -0.17pp -0.12pp -0.10pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +0.01pp -0.00pp +0.04pp +0.03pp +0.03pp -0.04pp -0.02pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -44.9k -67.2k -114.9k -118.4k -95.8k -45.8k -167.8k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -26.4k -35.7k -63.8k -64.8k -50.0k -17.5k -91.2k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -18.6k -31.5k -51.1k -53.6k -43.8k -24.6k -76.2k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -8 0 0 0 -2.0k -3.7k -347
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone -43.6k -68.6k -95.4k -125.5k -127.2k -85.2k -118.8k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children -21.1k -32.4k -48.0k -51.0k -51.8k -24.0k -63.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -22.4k -36.2k -47.4k -74.5k -75.0k -57.6k -53.7k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -94 0 0 0 -368 -3.7k -2.0k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone -51.1k -88.1k -114.9k -64.3k -91.1k +17.2k -164.2k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children -22.3k -52.3k -63.8k -40.7k -49.7k +15.1k -89.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -28.6k -35.8k -51.1k -38.1k -42.1k +1.2k -74.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -226 0 0 +14.6k +775 +852 -347
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone -37.6k -103.7k -77.4k -146.5k -128.1k -75.3k -95.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -16.8k -52.9k -55.2k -75.1k -57.1k -17.4k -50.5k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -21.5k -50.8k -26.5k -74.5k -74.4k -53.4k -43.5k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +689 -9 +4.3k +3.1k +3.5k -4.5k -2.0k

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0005 -0.0007 -0.0008 -0.0004 -0.0009

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household +£80 † -£382 † +£13 † -£63 † +£0.39 † +£55 † +£103 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household +£99 † +£818 † +£243 † +£222 † +£153 † +£55 † +£181 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household -£72 † -£15 † +£14 † +£32 † +£273 † +£40 † +£207 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household -£44 † -£11 † +£69 † +£170 † +£12 † +£206 † +£134 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household +£101 † +£120 † -£82 † +£294 † +£269 † +£293 † -£21 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household +£230 † +£231 † +£36 † +£67 † +£36 † -£271 † -£21 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household -£240 † -£273 † +£8.72 † +£82 † -£2.47 † +£254 † -£11 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household -£129 † -£39 † +£281 † -£332 † -£384 † -£389 † -£26 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household +£3.32 † +£2.75 † -£293 † +£3.04 † +£0.60 † -£5.29 † +£0.37 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household +£2.90 † +£2.18 † +£0.49 † +£0.88 † +£3.72 † -£98 † +£1.60 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp +£2.5m -£0.6m -£5.2m -£25.8m -£4.6m -£4.1m -£4.0m
Raise higher rate by 1pp -£808 -£1,152 -£0.7m +£1.1m +£0.7m -£2,187 -£0.2m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year -£2.7m +£0.7m -£13.2m +£1.9m +£4.0m +£1.6m -£0.6m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£1.0m -£1.4m -£0.9m -£1.3m +£0.8m +£9.7m -£2.7m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£192.1m -£467.5m -£520.0m -£725.9m -£539.2m -£419.4m -£346.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% -£1.9m -£3.8m -£6.3m -£11.8m -£11.4m +£1.4m -£9.4m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£715.8m -£739.5m -£765.9m -£783.5m -£801.6m -£819.7m -£837.9m
Raise additional rate by 3pp -£473 +£1,145 -£636 -£57,877 +£1,482 -£1,457 +£721
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£8.7m -£24.5m -£36.9m -£62.3m -£53.0m -£44.6m -£50.8m
Raise the State Pension by 10% -£5.4m +£1.8m +£0.9m +£2.4m +£3.6m +£4.9m -£0.2m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£3.4m +£2.6m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£1.1m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£149 +£517 -£3 -£21 -£253 -£243 -£286
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax -£4.1m -£1.3m -£14.6m -£0.8m +£0.6m -£1.5m -£1.8m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit +£1.7m +£1.6m +£1.4m +£1.3m +£1.2m +£1.1m +£1.0m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£188.7m +£465.1m +£519.3m +£713.8m +£536.2m +£418.8m +£344.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat -£715.8m -£739.5m -£765.8m -£783.3m -£801.5m -£819.7m -£838.1m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax -£155 +£469 +£1 -£1 +£0 -£293 -£55
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit +£7.1m +£21.5m +£34.3m +£59.2m +£59.2m +£41.5m +£44.4m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 +£37 (+0.2%) +£30 (+0.2%) +£82 (+0.5%) +£185 (+1.0%) +£210 (+1.1%) +£105 (+0.6%) +£209 (+1.1%)
Decile 2 +£14 (+0.0%) +£54 (+0.2%) +£58 (+0.2%) +£42 (+0.1%) +£47 (+0.2%) +£35 (+0.1%) +£104 (+0.3%)
Decile 3 +£18 (+0.1%) +£16 (+0.0%) +£23 (+0.1%) +£14 (+0.0%) +£16 (+0.0%) +£17 (+0.0%) +£23 (+0.1%)
Decile 4 +£11 (+0.0%) +£12 (+0.0%) +£14 (+0.0%) +£16 (+0.0%) +£75 (+0.2%) +£77 (+0.2%) +£21 (+0.0%)
Decile 5 +£6 (+0.0%) +£6 (+0.0%) +£12 (+0.0%) +£158 (+0.3%) +£150 (+0.3%) +£149 (+0.3%) +£8 (+0.0%)
Decile 6 +£7 (+0.0%) +£7 (+0.0%) +£3 (+0.0%) +£4 (+0.0%) +£12 (+0.0%) +£12 (+0.0%) +£8 (+0.0%)
Decile 7 +£4 (+0.0%) +£4 (+0.0%) +£5 (+0.0%) +£5 (+0.0%) +£5 (+0.0%) +£5 (+0.0%) +£3 (+0.0%)
Decile 8 +£5 (+0.0%) +£6 (+0.0%) +£9 (+0.0%) +£6 (+0.0%) +£6 (+0.0%) +£6 (+0.0%) +£5 (+0.0%)
Decile 9 +£6 (+0.0%) +£8 (+0.0%) +£4 (+0.0%) +£4 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) 0
Decile 10 +£3 (+0.0%) +£2 (+0.0%) 0 +£1 (+0.0%) +£4 (+0.0%) +£4 (+0.0%) +£2 (+0.0%)
all +£11 (+0.0%) +£15 (+0.0%) +£22 (+0.0%) +£46 (+0.1%) +£55 (+0.1%) +£42 (+0.1%) +£42 (+0.1%)
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 5.2% 0.4%
2026-27 4.9% 0.4%
2027-28 4.9% 0.3%
2028-29 4.9% 0.3%
2029-30 4.9% 0.3%
2030-31 4.9% 0.2%
2031-32 4.6% 0.2%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-52,314,332 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,150,722 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,043,426 in total
Counted-once check

The check raised each of 92 components by £1 per unit in 2026-27 and read every head of its totals household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A response that is not finite breaks every rule. The check measures a head that breaks a rule twice more: once holding every other head at its baseline value, and once holding every other head at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. The head fails where either measurement still shows the response. The check cannot hold a head at a value that is not finite. In each unit where another head is not finite after the first £1, it holds that head at its baseline value, and the second measurement judges no household the unit belongs to. There a head fails wherever it first broke a rule, or wherever the check could not confirm whether its response contains the component. 0 failed and the check skipped 0.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 5c0850da5f uk 2.175.7 (files caf48f036f2e), core 3.34.1, py 3.13.18 aarch64 be7a15d6f63f 3bcfb3473960 1760.17s
head #2887 merged into main 48c2a09abd uk 2.175.7 (files 2089f0e21fb7), core 3.34.1, py 3.13.18 aarch64 be7a15d6f63f 93bd0b3e0f8d 2204.92s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.44bn £315.21bn £335.80bn £351.25bn £366.92bn £385.32bn £399.96bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £242.22bn £249.47bn £258.67bn £264.86bn £270.95bn £277.04bn £283.21bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.20bn £2.26bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.13bn £26.00bn £26.83bn £26.51bn £25.78bn £24.63bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.72bn £129.48bn £132.98bn £136.65bn £140.41bn
Pension Credit £6.21bn £6.46bn £6.68bn £6.82bn £6.89bn £7.07bn £7.22bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.70bn £81.89bn £84.57bn £87.33bn £88.75bn £89.84bn £90.48bn
Housing Benefit £8.56bn £8.51bn £8.83bn £9.05bn £9.30bn £9.60bn £9.84bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.18bn £2.31bn £2.43bn £2.57bn £2.71bn £2.86bn £3.00bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.27bn £5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Scottish Carer Supplement £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.20bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.01bn £18.40bn £18.84bn £19.26bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.56bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.60bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.59bn £3.71bn £3.78bn £3.86bn £3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.37bn £2.43bn £2.48bn £2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.57bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Household Energy Payment £0.00bn £2.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,490k 1,485k 1,479k 1,457k 1,453k 1,459k 1,466k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,355k 6,453k 6,459k 6,461k 6,460k 6,416k 6,364k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,182k 1,181k 1,164k 1,166k 1,171k 1,170k
Council Tax Reduction 3,319k 3,337k 3,344k 3,357k 3,369k 3,381k 3,387k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,060k 1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Scottish Carer Supplement 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,124k 8,121k 8,121k 8,131k 8,146k 8,162k 8,179k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 353k 354k 355k 352k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,043k 1,010k 998k 1,009k 999k 994k 986k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 796k 797k 798k 798k 792k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,072k 1,073k 1,076k 1,079k 1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 154k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Household Energy Payment 0k 21,065k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £884.82bn £927.25bn £972.81bn £1,008.06bn £1,046.18bn £1,083.32bn £1,116.48bn
Government spending £529.27bn † £545.38bn † £550.66bn † £560.08bn † £567.98bn † £576.26bn † £583.87bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £355.56bn † £381.86bn † £422.16bn † £447.98bn † £478.21bn † £507.07bn † £532.62bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £884.82bn £927.25bn £972.81bn £1,008.06bn £1,046.18bn £1,083.32bn £1,116.48bn
household_tax £491.95bn £520.39bn £551.18bn £575.98bn £600.96bn £626.66bn £648.39bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.13bn £512.26bn £542.79bn £566.92bn £591.68bn £617.12bn £638.58bn
gov_spending £529.27bn † £545.38bn † £550.66bn † £560.08bn † £567.98bn † £576.26bn † £583.87bn †
household_benefits £529.27bn † £545.38bn † £550.66bn † £560.08bn † £567.98bn † £576.26bn † £583.87bn †
gov_balance £355.56bn † £381.86bn † £422.16bn † £447.98bn † £478.21bn † £507.07bn † £532.62bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.60bn † £1,687.56bn † £1,715.37bn † £1,748.09bn † £1,779.51bn † £1,817.37bn † £1,859.99bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.48bn £1,499.58bn £1,530.79bn £1,565.78bn £1,598.71bn £1,635.95bn £1,676.91bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.4% 16.3% 16.2% 16.3% 16.4% 16.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.5% 21.9% 22.9% 22.5% 22.8% 23.1% 22.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.0% 13.7% 14.5% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.4% 14.0% 13.8% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 21.0% 21.9% 22.4% 22.7% 23.0% 23.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.2% 31.0% 31.9% 32.2% 32.5% 33.2% 33.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.7% 21.4% 21.7% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 15.9% 16.2% 16.2% 16.2% 16.4% 16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.8% 22.5% 22.9% 22.6% 22.7% 23.0% 22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.0% 14.5% 14.6% 14.6% 14.7% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.1% 21.1% 21.2% 21.4% 21.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.8% 30.7% 30.5% 30.7% 31.1% 31.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.7% 20.1% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.8% 11.7% 11.8% 12.0%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,232k 10,717k 11,293k 11,254k 11,387k 11,475k 11,489k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,661k 3,278k 3,432k 3,380k 3,430k 3,485k 3,458k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,947k 5,864k 6,260k 6,312k 6,379k 6,409k 6,448k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,575k 1,601k 1,562k 1,577k 1,581k 1,584k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,900k 14,538k 15,223k 15,604k 15,819k 16,064k 16,321k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,954k 4,649k 4,789k 4,837k 4,893k 5,016k 5,116k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,441k 8,428k 8,928k 9,273k 9,421k 9,531k 9,662k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,505k 1,461k 1,506k 1,494k 1,505k 1,518k 1,544k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,699k 11,000k 11,279k 11,299k 11,330k 11,440k 11,493k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,850k 3,371k 3,432k 3,402k 3,416k 3,469k 3,460k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,130k 5,978k 6,253k 6,323k 6,349k 6,394k 6,450k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,719k 1,651k 1,594k 1,574k 1,565k 1,577k 1,584k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,826k 14,456k 14,663k 14,664k 14,755k 14,948k 15,145k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,928k 4,607k 4,605k 4,587k 4,621k 4,690k 4,755k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,409k 8,393k 8,660k 8,748k 8,806k 8,921k 9,023k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,490k 1,456k 1,398k 1,330k 1,328k 1,338k 1,367k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3077 0.3048 0.3052 0.3049 0.3053 0.3063 0.3074
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,761 † £17,628 † £17,931 † £18,097 † £18,302 † £18,602 † £18,835 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,040 † £29,842 † £28,865 † £29,226 † £29,439 † £29,754 † £30,271 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,244 † £35,411 † £36,089 † £36,555 † £37,268 † £37,722 † £38,361 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,891 † £40,676 † £41,785 † £42,940 † £43,435 † £44,317 † £44,580 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,335 † £45,675 † £45,951 † £47,224 † £47,984 † £48,871 † £50,253 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,162 † £49,471 † £50,969 † £52,051 † £52,999 † £53,704 † £54,693 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,419 † £56,304 † £57,454 † £57,731 † £58,748 † £59,923 † £61,085 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,656 † £70,765 † £72,147 † £73,182 † £73,504 † £74,936 † £77,153 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,892 † £81,015 † £80,566 † £82,648 † £85,464 † £86,939 † £89,508 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £116,864 † £120,163 † £124,545 † £126,420 † £125,756 † £128,269 † £130,694 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.63bn £6.83bn £7.02bn £7.25bn £7.48bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.22bn £4.44bn £4.71bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.81bn £-3.93bn £-4.00bn £-4.05bn £-4.11bn £-4.24bn £-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.38bn £-1.30bn £-1.17bn £-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.96bn £-21.79bn £-22.27bn £-22.72bn £-22.89bn £-23.17bn £-23.28bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.70bn £12.00bn £12.30bn £12.62bn £12.99bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.17bn £24.97bn £25.86bn £26.46bn £27.07bn £27.68bn £28.31bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.41bn £3.61bn £3.85bn £4.14bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.07bn £-3.25bn £-3.34bn £-3.45bn £-3.53bn £-3.57bn £-3.59bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.76bn £-7.99bn £-8.22bn £-8.44bn £-8.79bn £-8.52bn £-8.86bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.79bn £7.00bn £7.20bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.94bn £-4.07bn £-4.14bn £-4.18bn £-4.22bn £-4.40bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.93bn £21.78bn £22.31bn £22.76bn £22.91bn £23.20bn £23.33bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn £12.94bn £13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £23.98bn £24.77bn £25.66bn £26.24bn £26.85bn £27.46bn £28.07bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn £3.86bn £4.12bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.07bn £3.24bn £3.35bn £3.47bn £3.53bn £3.58bn £3.59bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.03bn £12.46bn £12.96bn

MaxGhenis and others added 23 commits November 6, 2026 07:30
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…s test

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…n-level lodgers

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis force-pushed the hub-integration-1106-c branch from 3780857 to 7639262 Compare November 6, 2026 12:31
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis changed the title Run CI on 22 pull requests merged together (not for merging) Run CI on 27 pull requests merged together (not for merging) Nov 6, 2026

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