[MaxGhenis]

This PR values share-like capital by asset type in the means tests. It stacks on #1969 (head b4e872273), where PolicyEngine deducts 10% for expenses of sale. Through #1969 it includes main at 52b30809f, and it includes #1974. This PR adds the asset split and its tests, updates the CI shard table and main's stored-totals test, and documents secured-debt uprating.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_isa_balances.py::test_person_isa_balances_count_in_full_in_every_means_test

What changes

Under #1969, PolicyEngine takes 10% off all of share_like_capital. DWP tells decision makers to value its parts differently in ADM chapter H1:

Holding	Guidance	10%
Quoted shares	ADM H1665; DMG 29671, 52671, 84763; HBGM W1.513	Yes
Unit trusts	Bid price, with no costs of sale even through a broker: ADM H1673-H1674; DMG 29680-29681, 52680-52681, 84771-84772; HBGM W1.530-W1.531	No
ISAs	Withdrawal value, and no ISA paragraph applies the 10%: ADM H1656-H1658; DMG 29662-29664, 52662, 84748-84750	No

This PR splits share_like_capital in two:

• PolicyEngine calculates share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses by subtracting the holdings in gov.dwp.share_like_capital.without_sale_expenses from share_like_capital, with a floor at nil. The list contains unit and investment trusts and stocks and shares ISAs. For households that itemise nothing, PolicyEngine keeps all share-like capital in this part and retains Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969's flat 10%.
• PolicyEngine puts the remainder in share_like_capital_without_sale_expenses, or nil when the household itemises no holding.

All six capital lists name both parts beside savings and cash ISAs: Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Income Support, income-based JSA, income-related ESA and Pension Credit. Their sale-expense lists name the first part and exclude savings and cash ISAs.

Stocks and shares ISAs

On main, PolicyEngine sums cash_isa and stocks_and_shares_isa from each person's balance (#2712), and reads stocks_and_shares_isa as an itemised holding. It puts stocks and shares ISAs in the part without sale expenses, whether a dataset stores household totals or person balances. Each means test counts the ISA at its withdrawal value.

Under #1969, PolicyEngine takes 10% off the ISA, so this PR changes the expectation in test_isa_balances.py. The stored case supplies £1,000 of savings, a £3,000 cash ISA and a £2,000 stocks and shares ISA for 2025. UC capital in 2027 rises from (£1,000 + £3,000 + 90% × £2,000) × 1.07224 = £6,218.99 to (£1,000 + £3,000 + £2,000) × 1.07224 = £6,433.44. Per capita GDP growth of 4.0% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 compounds to 1.07224. A new test gives a single adult the same amounts and supplies their own ISA balances. It checks £6,000 of capital in all six means tests.

Main's test_stored_household_totals_grow_past_the_projection_horizon reaches this PR through #1969. Its household stores the same three amounts, and #1969 makes it expect UC capital of 5.8 × savings. This PR makes the test expect savings, the cash ISA and the stocks and shares ISA at face value, 6 × savings in every year from 2025 to 2040, and drops its check that capital stays below face value.

Regulation 77 company holdings

An owner-manager holds company shares that UC disregards under reg 77(2), and selling shares incurs expenses. This PR moves HOLDINGS_SOURCE from share_like_capital to share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses. PolicyEngine budgets company holdings against that source in the UC pool, so it never deducts them from unit trusts or ISAs. It removes the holding from the pool and any complete override at 90%, matching UC's valuation of shares. On data that don't itemise, PolicyEngine calculates the same value for both sources.

CI shard table

Main's shard_durations.toml names three share-component tests that this PR replaces, and test_ci_test_shards.py fails when a line names a test that doesn't exist. This PR points those lines at the successors and keeps their measured durations.

Growth factors page

This PR adds three secured-debt inputs to the per capita GDP list on growthfactors.md: owned_land_secured_debt, other_residential_property_secured_debt and non_residential_property_secured_debt. PolicyEngine already uprates them by per capita GDP through uprating_indices.yaml.

#2779 rewrites this page, and Git can't merge the two edits to it. #2779's per capita GDP list already names non_residential_property_secured_debt and other_residential_property_secured_debt. Once #2779 lands on main, this PR's edit shrinks to adding owned_land_secured_debt after owned_land, and nothing else on the page changes.

Methodology

The Wealth and Assets Survey asks about unit and investment trusts in one question. Investment trusts trade as quoted shares; we infer that decision makers apply H1665's 10% deduction to directly held investment trusts. HMRC's ISA statistics, Table 9.6, put investment trusts at 8.2% of pooled funds in stocks and shares ISAs at 5 April 2022 and 6.9% at 5 April 2025. Those figures describe ISA holdings, and we use that composition as a proxy when treating the combined trust bucket outside ISAs as unit trusts. The survey does not separate the two trust types.

We give the whole trust bucket the treatment of unit trusts and count ISAs at their withdrawal value with no deduction. Under H1656, decision makers value an ISA at what its holder would get by withdrawing it; the paragraph does not mention the 10%. PolicyEngine retains the 10% for directly held shares and all of an unitemised corporate_wealth.

A parameter edit can put a whole holding such as stocks and shares ISAs back under the 10%: remove it from gov.dwp.share_like_capital.without_sale_expenses. Applying the 10% to part of a holding, such as the investment trusts in the bucket, would require a weight parameter and a formula change.

Impact

CI compared #1969's head 3a3241cf6 with 2f1051e9f on the certified Enhanced FRS (enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1). It found no change in any household's net income from fiscal year 2025-26 to 2031-32, or in receipts, the government balance, poverty or inequality.

policyengine-uk-data (main at e1acdf966) imputes one corporate_wealth. It sums WAS non-defined-benefit pension wealth, employee shares and options, UK shares, investment ISAs, and unit and investment trusts. It doesn't impute the three holdings separately, so PolicyEngine retains #1969's flat 10% for every household in that dataset.

Microcosm's UK build writes directly_held_shares, unit_and_investment_trusts and stocks_and_shares_isa so that they sum to corporate_wealth (was_wealth.py at c0513dbae). On data from that build, PolicyEngine excludes trusts and stocks and shares ISAs from the 10% deduction. CI's aggregate report doesn't cover those data.

Invariants

test_capital_share_components.py uses Hypothesis to check these properties on pounds-and-pence inputs that the engine stores as float32:

1. share_like_capital keeps the supplied corporate_wealth unless the itemised holdings exceed it beyond float32 rounding, and then equals their sum.
2. With nothing itemised, the part with sale expenses equals share_like_capital and the other part holds nil. Otherwise the first equals share_like_capital less trusts and ISAs, never below nil, and the two parts sum to share_like_capital.
3. On unitemised inputs, every programme's assessable capital and UC eligibility equal those under the lists before itemising, exactly, for 2026, January 2026, 2027 and January 2027.
4. For a consistent split, the property checks that UC capital rises by 10% of a working-age adult's trusts and ISAs. It allows the greater of £0.05 and a relative tolerance of 1e-5.
5. Given only itemised holdings, with the ISAs as person balances, all six means tests count savings, cash ISAs, trusts and stocks and shares ISAs in full. They count directly held shares less 10%. The property checks each total after the programme's rounding rule, to within £0.011.

The capital property suite from #1969 (test_capital_valuation_properties.py) keeps its oracle. The oracle specifies which assets take the 10% from the law, independently of the parameters. It maps the part with sale expenses to the household's corporate_wealth and the part without to nil. It still raises a KeyError for any source it doesn't map.

test_stored_household_totals_grow_past_the_projection_horizon checks that a household's UC capital equals savings plus its stored cash and stocks and shares ISA totals, and keeps one ratio to savings, in every year from 2025 to 2040.

Fixed cases pin these results:

• For £399,999.984375 of corporate_wealth beside £200,000 of trusts and a £199,999.984375 ISA, PolicyEngine leaves nil with sale expenses. It rounds both totals to £400,000 in float32 and sums the trusts and ISA before subtracting them;
• For £16,000 of corporate_wealth beside £8,000.01 of trusts and an £8,000 ISA, PolicyEngine sums the holdings in float32 to £16,000.009765625. It leaves nil with sale expenses and £16,000 without;
• With an empty exempt list, PolicyEngine deducts 10% from £12,000 of share-like capital whether the household itemises or not. UC counts £11,800 beside £1,000 of savings;
• Income Support and income-based JSA count £1,000 of savings and £12,000 of corporate_wealth as £11,800 in 2012;
• UC denies eligibility when a household holds a penny of shares beside £16,000 of savings. PolicyEngine preserves corporate_wealth when float32 rounding pushes the components' sum above £16,000 or £16,384.01;
• PolicyEngine removes a £30,000 company holding from the UC pool at £27,000;
• UC values £1,000 of savings, £4,000 of shares, £3,000 of trusts and a £5,000 ISA at £12,600;
• UC and Pension Credit count itemised holdings in a monthly period without proration (£12,300, in test_stock_capital_periods.py).

Validation

CI runs only on pull requests into main, so it skips this PR while it targets #1969's branch.

We ran these at ce91e92ea9d2d7c7025d932ba613438bf4a70a8d, after uv sync --frozen --extra dev, with HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN and POLICYENGINE_UK_DEFAULT_DATASET unset:

Command	Result
uv run pytest -n 4 on test_stored_household_totals.py	42 passed
test_isa_balances.py	8 passed
test_capital_valuation_properties.py	18 passed
test_stock_capital_periods.py	3 passed
test_uc_company_owner_properties.py	7 passed
test_uc_company_override_properties.py	11 passed
test_uc_property_capital.py	65 passed
test_uc_property_capital_mock.py	26 passed
uv run pytest test_capital_share_components.py::test_unitemised_inputs_match_the_lists_before_itemising, on its own	1 passed (1,791 s)
uv run pytest -n 4 test_capital_share_components.py, deselecting that node	21 passed
uv run pytest -n 4, one file at a time, on the other test files that name share_like_capital, corporate_wealth, stocks_and_shares_isa, uc_assessable_capital or sale_expenses: test_uc_capital_allocation.py 1, test_benunit_reported_capital_properties.py 7, test_corporate_land_value.py 4, test_corporate_receipts_statistics.py 141, test_dataframe_dataset.py 90, test_isa_accounting.py 12, test_lifetime_isa_capital.py 3, test_mixed_age_couple_properties.py 1, test_pension_credit_reported_capital_properties.py 4, test_process_time_reforms.py 71, test_sdlt_counted_once_properties.py 1, test_uc_income_from_capital_properties.py 6, test_uc_legacy_closure_properties.py 4, test_uc_single_claim_properties.py 8, test_wealth_components.py 3, test_wealth_tax_net_base_properties.py 2, test_weighted_incidence.py 19	377 passed
uv run policyengine-core test -c policyengine_uk on capital_valuation.yaml 26, capital_valuation_share_split.yaml 10, cash_isa_capital.yaml 8, lifetime_isa_capital.yaml 24, isa_balances.yaml 2, and the *capital*.yaml files under ESA 13, HB 22, IS 13, JSA 12, UC 22, PC 9 and household/wealth 6	167 passed
uv run pytest -n 4 policyengine_uk/tests/code_health	3,113 passed
.github/check_fix_pr.py on this title and body, with the changes from b4e872273 to the head	Fix evidence: PASS, "Changed executable tests: 6"
uvx ruff@0.17.2 format --check . / check . / check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk	2,180 files already formatted / all checks passed / all checks passed
git diff --check 6a0d26d61..HEAD	clean
git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD origin/main (52b30809f)	clean
git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD af3758c64 (#2779)	conflict in docs/book/assumptions/growthfactors.md only

We ran each mutant with Hypothesis shrinking off:

Mutant	Commit	Result
Stocks and shares ISAs back under the 10%	2f1051e9f	killed: all 7 selected ISA-balance tests and all 3 selected share-component tests fail
HOLDINGS_SOURCE on all of share_like_capital	2f1051e9f	killed: the regulation 77 test fails
Income-based JSA's capital list drops the part without sale expenses	2f1051e9f	killed: the JSA list test, the valuation-by-type property (£7,600 against £15,600) and the JSA ISA-balance test (£4,000 against £6,000) fail
No floor at nil	6a0d26d61	killed: the floor case and its @example find −£0.009765625 with sale expenses
No branch for households that itemise nothing	6a0d26d61	killed: UC capital of £5,999.00 against £5,999.20 for £6,001 of savings and −£2 of corporate_wealth
stocks_and_shares_isa dropped from gov.dwp.share_like_capital.without_sale_expenses, run on the stored-totals node (a fixed case, no Hypothesis)	ce91e92ea	killed: assert np.float64(5800.0) == 6000.0 ± 0.06, 2025

Runs at earlier commits

Check	Commit	Result
CI Python tests, six shards (run 41246639348)	6a0d26d61	11,425 passed, 61 skipped, 2 xfailed
CI YAML tests, same run	6a0d26d61	5,451 passed
CI lint, documentation build, release build and smoke imports on Python 3.11 to 3.14, same run	6a0d26d61	passed
CI Python and YAML tests (run 41225440409)	2f1051e9f	11,424 passed, 61 skipped, 2 xfailed; 5,451 YAML cases passed
Aggregate impact against 3a3241cf6 (run 41225446226)	2f1051e9f	no change in any year
Differential against 3a3241cf6 for 400 households that don't itemise: each programme's assessable capital and award, UC eligibility and the UC company-holding variables in 2025, 2026 and 2027, and UC capital, eligibility and award in January 2026 (58 outputs, 27,616 values)	2f1051e9f	identical
test_isa_balances.py, test_wealth_components.py, test_isa_accounting.py, test_lifetime_isa_capital.py, test_uc_property_capital_mock.py, test_uc_company_override_properties.py, test_uc_company_owner_axiom_parity.py	ce360946a	67 passed
code_health/test_ci_test_shards.py, test_stock_capital_periods.py	6a0d26d61	54 passed
YAML: capital_valuation_share_split.yaml, cash_isa_capital.yaml, isa_balances.yaml, lifetime_isa_capital.yaml	6a0d26d61	44 passed
ruff format --check, ruff check, --select F811,F821, git diff --check	6a0d26d61	clean

ce360946a differs from 2f1051e9f only in shard_durations.toml, and 6a0d26d61 adds the floor case to test_capital_share_components.py. CI at 6a0d26d61 passed every case in these files:

File	Passed
test_capital_share_components.py	22
test_capital_valuation_properties.py	18
test_uc_property_capital.py	65
test_uc_company_owner_properties.py	7
test_uc_tax_free_childcare_choice.py	20
test_input_records.py	11
test_fiscal_partition.py	43

CI also passed the 70 cases in capital_valuation.yaml, lifetime_isa_capital.yaml, capital_valuation_share_split.yaml, cash_isa_capital.yaml and isa_balances.yaml at 6a0d26d61.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#395 queued

We added the asset-type distinction and hand-computed companion cases to the issue (TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#395 (comment)).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[vahid-ahmadi]

Thanks Max. Reviewed at head b1a66004.

The "+10.5k lines" is the main merge carried in through #1974. The real diff over #1969 + #1974 (merged at their heads) is 11 files, +710/−125:

• the six sale_expenses.sources lists;
• the new capital_valuation_share_split.yaml;
• the property tests;
• test_stock_capital_periods.py;
• a changelog fragment.

That's what I reviewed.

Guidance:

• ADM H1674 is explicit: unit trusts have "no costs of sale. This applies even if persons use an agent, such as a stockbroker."
• H1665 applies the 10% to quoted shares.
• H1656 values an ISA at "what people would get if they withdrew their investment".

The lists now apply the 10% to directly_held_shares and the unitemised residual only, which is right for shares and unit trusts. SPC Sch V and UC Sch 10 have no disregard that changes this.

Probes:

• savings £5,000, shares £4,000, trusts £3,000, ISA £5,000 (corporate_wealth £12,000) gives £16,600 for UC, HB and IS. The same holdings with only the components entered also give £16,600.
• An unsplit corporate_wealth of £12,000 still gives #1969's £15,800.
• Your monthly case (£12,300) matches.

Tests:

• At the head: the capital-valuation, share-component, wealth-component, stock-period and PC reported-capital property tests, 26 passed. DWP, family and household YAML, 1,064 passed.
• Merged into current main (the merge is clean): YAML, 1,389 passed. Properties: 19 passed and 2 failed. The two failures are the same stale applies() oracle as on #1969 (here at tests/test_capital_valuation_properties.py:240), not the new share-split properties. They'll clear when #1969's fix is carried through.
• There's no CI on this PR, because its base isn't main, so these local runs are the only test evidence so far.

Findings:

1. Should fix (merge order). Retarget to main as soon as #1969 merges, and get CI green on the retargeted head before merging. Until then, nothing hosted has run on these lists. This PR must land in the same window as #1969 and #1974 (see my notes there): with those two in and this one out, the 10% on shares disappears.

2. Should fix. parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/means_test/capital/sale_expenses/sources.yaml:20-22, and the same sentence in the other five lists. The ISA exemption is weaker than the unit-trust one:

   • H1674 says outright that unit trusts have no costs of sale. For ISAs, the guidance is silent and you're inferring from H1656 ("withdrawal value").
   • A stocks-and-shares ISA holding quoted shares has to sell them through the ISA manager. That is a broker sale under H1605, and reg 49(1)(a) applies wherever "there would be expenses attributable to sale".

   I'd keep ISAs exempt, since most ISA money is in funds, but describe it as a judgement, like the investment-trust one, rather than "no ISA paragraph applies the 10%". Give the directly-held-shares share of stocks-and-shares ISAs from HMRC Table 9.6 alongside it.

3. Nit. variables/input/directly_held_shares.py:9. Employee share options now take the 10% as "shares". An unexercised option isn't sold through a broker and is often not realisable at all. It's fine as an approximation, but say so in the list descriptions next to the investment-trust caveat.

4. Nit. tests/test_capital_share_components.py. You removed the itemising-invariance test on purpose. A one-line comment pointing to the replacement differential in test_capital_valuation_properties.py would stop someone restoring it.

[MaxGhenis]

Independent review (GPT-6.1 Sol, UK hub sweep, 2026-10-12): REQUEST_CHANGES at b1a660045. The full review is below. Blockers 1 and 2 are methodology calls the ADM leaves open; they are queued for Max as d1396. Findings 3–6 are for whoever picks this up after uk-data#501 lands (the triage deferred this PR until after 28 Oct).

VERDICT: REQUEST_CHANGES
Head reviewed: b1a6600

1. [blocker] Investment-trust treatment requires Max’s methodology decision. UC sale_expenses/sources.yaml:14 exempts the combined unit-and-investment-trust bucket across all six programmes. ADM H1665/H1674 distinguishes quoted shares, which receive 10%, from unit trusts, which have no sale costs. Fix: obtain Max’s explicit decision; separate investment trusts or implement an approved proxy.

2. [blocker] The ISA exclusion is an unresolved interpretation. UC sale_expenses/sources.yaml:20 infers exemption from the ISA paragraphs’ silence about 10%. ADM H1656 specifies withdrawal value without expressly overriding the general sale-cost rule. The input describes only “amount held”:7. Fix: have Max settle whether the input represents net withdrawal proceeds and how sale costs apply, then align all six lists and tests.

3. [should-fix] Reconcile main’s reported-capital changes. Against local origin/main 3f174d0, merge-tree reports conflicts in growth-factor documentation, uprating indices, and uc_assessable_capital.py:10. Main Record benefit-unit capital once; derive UC and Pension Credit reported capital from it #2201 introduced shared reported-capital handling. Fix: update the stack while preserving its reported-capital formulas, documentation, and uprating entries.

4. [should-fix] Clean merges still change newer regression expectations. pension_credit_assessable_capital.py:33 values unitemised £20,000 corporate wealth at £18,000. Main’s new CTR regression:660 expects £20,000. Fix: recalculate its capital, deemed-income and savings-credit expectations, and test the newer HB/CTR routes after reconciliation.

5. [should-fix] Impact evidence is missing. The PR’s Impact section defers measurement to the data PR. test_capital_valuation_properties.py:336 establishes compatibility when every component is zero; it does not establish enhanced-FRS impact against main. Fix: provide an actual Microsimulation comparison with dataset/version, simulation year, both SHAs, commands and traceable outputs, including any measured zero result.

6. [should-fix] The stacked diff includes protected and unrelated changes. Its actual base-to-head diff spans 164 files, including simulation.py:235, tests/conftest.py:19, and unrelated tax, earnings and housing changes inherited from main. Fix: refresh the prerequisites/base so the final review diff isolates the exemption changes.

The stated mechanisms and invariants match the code under the chosen methodology. Property tests cover the load-bearing logic; replacing the old itemising-invariance test is justified. The exemption commit adds no skips or xfails. Ruff formatting and lint passed for its three changed Python files.

Shell testing was attempted below the 30 GB compressor threshold. pytest -n 0 lacked xdist; three property files failed collection because Hypothesis was missing. The serial subset collected six tests but was interrupted before any ran. No independent test passes are claimed.

GB regulations and programme manuals were reviewed; several NI references and the HMRC percentages remain unverified. Requested gh commands failed network access, so web and local Git evidence were used. No files were changed.

[vahid-ahmadi]

Needs changes before merge. The split itself is right and well tested. But this branch carries both CI failures from #1969 and #1974, it inherits the #1965 holding problem in both forms, and nothing hosted has run on it.

@MaxGhenis, this is a delta review. My last review was at b1a66004; this one is at 6a5a13a4. Since then the split has been rebuilt on #1974's block: share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses and _without_sale_expenses, with an exempt-holdings parameter. I reviewed the diff against #1969 + #1974 merged at their current heads: 21 files, +678/−186.

Status of my earlier findings:

• F1 (retarget to main, CI): still open. See finding 2.
• F2 (ISA exemption described as a judgement): partly addressed. The body now has a methodology note, but the parameter text still states it as settled. See finding 3.
• F3 (employee share options caveat): not taken. See finding 5.
• F4 (invariance test comment): addressed. The module docstring now points to the differential.

Findings:

1. must (carried in from #1969 and #1974). This head contains both CI failures and the #1965 interaction:

   • test_projection_horizon.py:181 fails, as on #1974. The ISA variables are now mapped in uprating_indices.yaml.
   • test_savings_credit_only_receipt_properties.py:508 fails, as on #1969. It expects 601.02 where reg 19 gives 621.82.
   • Company holdings, probed on this head merged into current main. Take a single UC claimant who is sole owner of a trading company, with a £10,000 holding and £5,000 savings:
     • with corporate_wealth £10,000, UC capital is £4,000 (expected £5,000);
     • with only directly_held_shares £10,000, UC capital is £14,000 (expected £5,000), because the pool cap still reads corporate_wealth.
   • On this head merged into main, the same 8 uc_company_analogous_business.yaml cases and 3 test_uc_company_owner_properties.py properties fail as on #1969. Five of those YAML cases are the holding problem; three are the plain 90% revaluation and only need new expectations (see my #1969 review).
   • Here the holding should come off share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses at 90%, since an owner's shares are directly held shares.

   Once the fixes land on #1969 and #1974, merge them through and re-run.

2. must. No CI has run on this PR, because its base is uc-capital-sale-expenses. The body's "Local runs" line is still "pending". Retarget to main and get the full suite green before anything in the stack merges. If this PR lands alone, it carries #1969 and #1974 with no window where the 10% on shares disappears. On a #1969 + #1974 tree without this PR, £5,000 savings + corporate_wealth £12,000 gives £17,000 for UC; this head gives £15,800.

3. should. parameters/gov/dwp/share_like_capital/without_sale_expenses.yaml:10-12 still says "no ISA paragraph applies the deduction", as if that settled it. The changelog fragment states the ISA exemption flatly too.

   • ADM H1656 and DMG 29662 value an ISA at "what people would get if they withdrew their investment" and say nothing about costs of sale.
   • The body parks this, and the investment-trust question, for a decision (d1396).
   • Until it's decided, the parameter text should call the exemption a judgement, as it already does for investment trusts. I'm not suggesting which way to decide.

4. nit. The six capital/sources.yaml descriptions each have an unwrapped line of about 175 characters. An example is universal_credit/means_test/capital/sources.yaml:8 ("share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses and share_like_capital_without_sale_expenses split ..."). Rewrap to match the rest.

5. nit. share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses.py:3 hardcodes COMPONENTS for the "is anything itemised" gate, while the exempt list is a parameter. A reform adding a new exempt variable outside COMPONENTS would be ignored for a household that itemises only that variable. Consider a comment saying the exempt list must be a subset of the components, or a test asserting it. Separately, employee share options still take the 10% as "directly held shares" with no caveat (my F3). One clause in without_sale_expenses.yaml would cover it.

What I checked:

• Guidance, re-read from the current PDFs:

  • ADM H1656-H1658 (ISA at withdrawal value; nothing on costs of sale);
  • ADM H1673-H1674 and DMG 29680-29681 (unit trusts: "no costs of sale ... even if persons use an agent");
  • DMG 29662 and 29664 (ISA), and DMG 29671 (10% on shares).

  The paragraph numbers in the parameters match. I didn't check the NI or HBGM numbers, or the HMRC Table 9.6 percentages.

• Probes on this head:

  • unsplit £5,000 + corporate_wealth £12,000 gives £15,800 (UC, IS; PC at 70), as on #1969;
  • split shares £4,000, trusts £3,000, ISA £5,000 gives £16,600;
  • components only with £1,000 savings gives £1,000 + 90% × £4,000 + £3,000 + £5,000 = £12,600, matching the body.

• Revert check. capital_valuation_share_split.yaml run on #1969 + #1974 without this PR's source changes: 10 failed. At this head: 10 passed.

• Tests. I ran the same property files and YAML directories as on #1969 and #1974, plus #1965's company-owner tests.

  • At this head: 2 failed (the two carried CI failures) and 2,360 passed; YAML 1,889 passed.
  • Merged into current main (clean): 5 failed (those two plus the three #1965 properties) and 2,405 passed; YAML 8 failed (company cases) and 1,980 passed. Current main 714b1438c on the same set: all 2,363 pass, and YAML 1,964 pass.

• Lint. ruff check and ruff format --check on the 11 changed Python files: clean.

• Repo process. The .fixed fragment and the Reproducer and axiom lines are present, and the named reproducer case exists. The branch also carries #1974's .added fragment, which is fine if it lands as one unit.

• Overlap with my open PRs. #2382 merges cleanly with it.

• Not checked. Any dataset run, or uk-data #501.

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[MaxGhenis]

UK hub takeover for the Budget fix sprint (Max, 21 Oct). The owner session local_b8fb4700 has been idle since mid-October. The hub woke it on 21 Oct at 23:58Z, and it did not start. To land this before the Budget model locks (the first pe-uk release cut by about 12:00Z Thu 22 Oct), the hub has taken it over as build 20261021-211254-sprint-1974-2131, which merges main, re-tests, pushes as a fast-forward and marks it ready. The hub then reviews it and lands it through the merge queue.

If the owner session wakes, please don't push to this branch; comment here instead, so there's only one writer.

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[MaxGhenis]

UK hub: takeover withdrawn. The owner session has been woken (22 Oct 01:25Z) and is finishing this PR itself, so the hub's build is cancelled. One writer: the owner session.

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[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub (owner session local_b8fb4700). Head e78257a: #1969's b3f6f60 plus #1974's 6600477, with this PR's split on top.

Depends on:

• Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969, the base branch;
• Itemise corporate_wealth's share-like components for the means tests #1974, merged in here and being handed off separately.

This PR targets #1969's branch, so GitHub runs no CI on it. Retarget it to main once #1969 lands; CI and the Aggregate impact report then run.

Local results at e78257a:

• The affected pytest files (share components, capital-valuation properties, the UC company owner, override and parity tests, UC property capital, reported capital, savings-credit-only, Lifetime ISA, stock periods, wealth components): 166 passed.
• YAML for the benefit families, gov/dwp, household/wealth and gov/local_authorities: 2,315 passed.
• code_health: 2,554 passed.
• ruff: clean.

Reviews. Round 3 (6a5a13a) asked for changes. All its findings are fixed here: the projected-year differential, the £16,000 overshoot test and the power-of-two precondition from #1974 are restored; the grouping @example, the exempt-list start invariant and the body wording are added. The rebuild on #1969's new structure also adds the reg 77 HOLDINGS_SOURCE change, explained in the body. The hub's independent review is owed at e78257a.

Methodology. d1396 is no longer parked as a blocker. Under Max's 2026-10-20 delegation it is a logged session ruling, uk:means-test-pooled-funds-and-isas-sale-expenses in ~/reviews/us-hub/source-conflicts/RULINGS.md, and d1396 has a note saying so.

Follow-ups owed:

• If Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969 lands with further changes, re-merge it here.
• Expected impact: none on released uk-data builds, which don't itemise corporate_wealth. Confirm with the Aggregate impact report after the retarget.

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[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off addendum. Since the hand-off above, #1969 has moved past b3f6f60 to 9b9ef66 after its Sol v4b and v5 reviews, and is in review v6. So e78257a is not the head to review or land.

Agreed sequence, with #1969's owner (local_c12c197a):

1. Itemise corporate_wealth's share-like components for the means tests #1974 lands.
2. Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969 merges main and makes the corporate_wealth → share_like_capital rename itself, from the checklist in Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969 (comment).
3. Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969 lands.
4. This PR merges Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969's final head (which by then includes Itemise corporate_wealth's share-like components for the means tests #1974) and retargets main. The independent review runs at that head.

What the rebase changes on this side, which e78257a already shows on b3f6f60:

• HOLDINGS_SOURCE becomes share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses;
• the six sale_expenses lists name the part with sale expenses;
• the property oracle maps that part to corporate_wealth and the other part to nil.

The newer #1969 code also has a whole_penny_situation property that sets corporate_wealth. It is unitemised, so it should need no change.

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[MaxGhenis]

We've moved this back to draft. This branch contains #1969's head, so it fails main's stored-totals test the same way (details on #1969). Once #1969's fix reaches its branch, we'll restack this one on it and resolve its conflict with #2779 in docs/book/assumptions/growthfactors.md.

[MaxGhenis]

Picking this up for the UK hub. Reply here if you're mid-change and I'll stop.

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[MaxGhenis]

PR_TITLE.txt

Value share-like capital by asset type for the sale-expense deduction

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[MaxGhenis]

PR_BODY.md

This PR values share-like capital by asset type in the means tests. It stacks on #1969 (head `b4e872273`), where PolicyEngine deducts 10% for expenses of sale. Through #1969 it includes main at `52b30809f`, and it includes #1974. This PR adds the asset split and its tests, updates the CI shard table and main's stored-totals test, and documents secured-debt uprating.

Reproducer: `policyengine_uk/tests/test_isa_balances.py::test_person_isa_balances_count_in_full_in_every_means_test`

## What changes

Under #1969, PolicyEngine takes 10% off all of `share_like_capital`. DWP tells decision makers to value its parts differently in [ADM chapter H1](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a5e0ac7a2662d4563fe39e0/adm-ch-h1.pdf):

| Holding | Guidance | 10% |
|---|---|---|
| Quoted shares | ADM H1665; DMG 29671, 52671, 84763; HBGM W1.513 | Yes |
| Unit trusts | Bid price, with no costs of sale even through a broker: ADM H1673-H1674; DMG 29680-29681, 52680-52681, 84771-84772; HBGM W1.530-W1.531 | No |
| ISAs | Withdrawal value, and no ISA paragraph applies the 10%: ADM H1656-H1658; DMG 29662-29664, 52662, 84748-84750 | No |

This PR splits `share_like_capital` in two:

- PolicyEngine calculates `share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses` by subtracting the holdings in `gov.dwp.share_like_capital.without_sale_expenses` from `share_like_capital`, with a floor at nil. The list contains unit and investment trusts and stocks and shares ISAs. For households that itemise nothing, PolicyEngine keeps all share-like capital in this part and retains #1969's flat 10%.
- PolicyEngine puts the remainder in `share_like_capital_without_sale_expenses`, or nil when the household itemises no holding.

All six capital lists name both parts beside savings and cash ISAs: Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Income Support, income-based JSA, income-related ESA and Pension Credit. Their sale-expense lists name the first part and exclude savings and cash ISAs.

### Stocks and shares ISAs

On main, PolicyEngine sums `cash_isa` and `stocks_and_shares_isa` from each person's balance (#2712), and reads `stocks_and_shares_isa` as an itemised holding. It puts stocks and shares ISAs in the part without sale expenses, whether a dataset stores household totals or person balances. Each means test counts the ISA at its withdrawal value.

Under #1969, PolicyEngine takes 10% off the ISA, so this PR changes the expectation in `test_isa_balances.py`. The stored case supplies £1,000 of savings, a £3,000 cash ISA and a £2,000 stocks and shares ISA for 2025. UC capital in 2027 rises from (£1,000 + £3,000 + 90% × £2,000) × 1.07224 = £6,218.99 to (£1,000 + £3,000 + £2,000) × 1.07224 = £6,433.44. Per capita GDP growth of 4.0% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 compounds to 1.07224. A new test gives a single adult the same amounts and supplies their own ISA balances. It checks £6,000 of capital in all six means tests.

Main's `test_stored_household_totals_grow_past_the_projection_horizon` reaches this PR through #1969. Its household stores the same three amounts, and #1969 expects UC capital of 5.8 × savings. This PR makes the test expect savings, the cash ISA and the stocks and shares ISA at face value, 6 × savings in every year from 2025 to 2040, and drops its check that capital stays below face value.

### Regulation 77 company holdings

An owner-manager holds company shares that UC disregards under reg 77(2), and selling shares incurs expenses. This PR moves `HOLDINGS_SOURCE` from `share_like_capital` to `share_like_capital_with_sale_expenses`. PolicyEngine budgets company holdings against that source in the UC pool, so it never deducts them from unit trusts or ISAs. It removes the holding from the pool and any complete override at 90%, matching UC's valuation of shares. On data that don't itemise, PolicyEngine calculates the same value for both sources.

### CI shard table

Main's `shard_durations.toml` names three share-component tests that this PR replaces, and `test_ci_test_shards.py` fails when a line names a test that doesn't exist. This PR points those lines at the successors and keeps their measured durations.

### Growth factors page

This PR adds three secured-debt inputs to the per capita GDP list on `growthfactors.md`: `owned_land_secured_debt`, `other_residential_property_secured_debt` and `non_residential_property_secured_debt`. PolicyEngine already uprates them by per capita GDP through `uprating_indices.yaml`.

#2779 rewrites this page, and Git can't merge the two edits to it. #2779's per capita GDP list already names `non_residential_property_secured_debt` and `other_residential_property_secured_debt`. Once #2779 lands on main, this PR's edit shrinks to adding `owned_land_secured_debt` after `owned_land`, and the page names no count that changes.

## Methodology

The Wealth and Assets Survey asks about unit and investment trusts in one question. Investment trusts trade as quoted shares; we infer that decision makers apply H1665's 10% deduction to directly held investment trusts. [HMRC's ISA statistics, Table 9.6](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-savings-statistics-2026), put investment trusts at 8.2% of pooled funds in stocks and shares ISAs at 5 April 2022 and 6.9% at 5 April 2025. Those figures describe ISA holdings, and we use that composition as a proxy when treating the combined trust bucket outside ISAs as unit trusts. The survey does not separate the two trust types.

We give the whole trust bucket the treatment of unit trusts and count ISAs at their withdrawal value with no deduction. Under H1656, decision makers value an ISA at what its holder would get by withdrawing it; the paragraph does not mention the 10%. PolicyEngine retains the 10% for directly held shares and all of an unitemised `corporate_wealth`.

A parameter edit can put a whole holding such as stocks and shares ISAs back under the 10%: remove it from `gov.dwp.share_like_capital.without_sale_expenses`. Applying the 10% to part of a holding, such as the investment trusts in the bucket, would require a weight parameter and a formula change.

## Impact

CI compared #1969's head `3a3241cf6` with `2f1051e9f` on the certified Enhanced FRS (`enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5`, policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1). It found no change in any household's net income from fiscal year 2025-26 to 2031-32, or in receipts, the government balance, poverty or inequality.

policyengine-uk-data (`main` at `e1acdf966`) imputes one `corporate_wealth`. It sums WAS non-defined-benefit pension wealth, employee shares and options, UK shares, investment ISAs, and unit and investment trusts. It doesn't impute the three holdings separately, so PolicyEngine retains #1969's flat 10% for every household in that dataset.

Microcosm's UK build writes `directly_held_shares`, `unit_and_investment_trusts` and `stocks_and_shares_isa` so that they sum to `corporate_wealth` (`was_wealth.py` at `c0513dbae`). On data from that build, PolicyEngine excludes trusts and stocks and shares ISAs from the 10% deduction. CI's aggregate report doesn't cover those data.

## Invariants

`test_capital_share_components.py` uses Hypothesis to check these properties on pounds-and-pence inputs that the engine stores as float32:

1. `share_like_capital` keeps the supplied `corporate_wealth` unless the itemised holdings exceed it beyond float32 rounding, and then equals their sum.
2. With nothing itemised, the part with sale expenses equals `share_like_capital` and the other part holds nil. Otherwise the first equals `share_like_capital` less trusts and ISAs, never below nil, and the two parts sum to `share_like_capital`.
3. On unitemised inputs, every programme's assessable capital and UC eligibility equal those under the lists before itemising, exactly, for 2026, January 2026, 2027 and January 2027.
4. For a consistent split, the property checks that UC capital rises by 10% of a working-age adult's trusts and ISAs. It allows the greater of £0.05 and a relative tolerance of `1e-5`.
5. Given only itemised holdings, with the ISAs as person balances, all six means tests count savings, cash ISAs, trusts and stocks and shares ISAs in full. They count directly held shares less 10%. The property checks each total after the programme's rounding rule, to within £0.011.

The capital property suite from #1969 (`test_capital_valuation_properties.py`) keeps its oracle. The oracle specifies which assets take the 10% from the law, independently of the parameters. It maps the part with sale expenses to the household's `corporate_wealth` and the part without to nil. It still raises a `KeyError` for any source it doesn't map.

`test_stored_household_totals_grow_past_the_projection_horizon` checks that a household's UC capital equals savings plus its stored cash and stocks and shares ISA totals, and keeps one ratio to savings, in every year from 2025 to 2040.

Fixed cases pin these results:

- For £399,999.984375 of `corporate_wealth` beside £200,000 of trusts and a £199,999.984375 ISA, PolicyEngine leaves nil with sale expenses. It rounds both totals to £400,000 in float32 and sums the trusts and ISA before subtracting them;
- For £16,000 of `corporate_wealth` beside £8,000.01 of trusts and an £8,000 ISA, PolicyEngine sums the holdings in float32 to £16,000.009765625. It leaves nil with sale expenses and £16,000 without;
- With an empty exempt list, PolicyEngine deducts 10% from £12,000 of share-like capital whether the household itemises or not. UC counts £11,800 beside £1,000 of savings;
- Income Support and income-based JSA count £1,000 of savings and £12,000 of `corporate_wealth` as £11,800 in 2012;
- UC denies eligibility when a household holds a penny of shares beside £16,000 of savings. PolicyEngine preserves `corporate_wealth` when float32 rounding pushes the components' sum above £16,000 or £16,384.01;
- PolicyEngine removes a £30,000 company holding from the UC pool at £27,000;
- UC values £1,000 of savings, £4,000 of shares, £3,000 of trusts and a £5,000 ISA at £12,600;
- UC and Pension Credit count itemised holdings in a monthly period without proration (£12,300, in `test_stock_capital_periods.py`).

## Validation

No CI runs on this PR while its base is #1969's branch.

Local runs at `ce91e92ea9d2d7c7025d932ba613438bf4a70a8d`, with `uv sync --frozen --extra dev` and `HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN` and `POLICYENGINE_UK_DEFAULT_DATASET` unset:

| Command | Result |
|---|---|
| `uv run pytest -n 4` on `test_stored_household_totals.py` | 42 passed |
| `test_isa_balances.py` | 8 passed |
| `test_capital_valuation_properties.py` | 18 passed |
| `test_stock_capital_periods.py` | 3 passed |
| `test_uc_company_owner_properties.py` | 7 passed |
| `test_uc_company_override_properties.py` | 11 passed |
| `test_uc_property_capital.py` | 65 passed |
| `test_uc_property_capital_mock.py` | 26 passed |
| `uv run pytest test_capital_share_components.py::test_unitemised_inputs_match_the_lists_before_itemising`, on its own | 1 passed (1,791 s) |
| `uv run pytest -n 4 test_capital_share_components.py`, deselecting that node | 21 passed |
| `uv run pytest -n 4`, one file at a time, on the other test files that name `share_like_capital`, `corporate_wealth`, `stocks_and_shares_isa`, `uc_assessable_capital` or `sale_expenses`: `test_uc_capital_allocation.py` 1, `test_benunit_reported_capital_properties.py` 7, `test_corporate_land_value.py` 4, `test_corporate_receipts_statistics.py` 141, `test_dataframe_dataset.py` 90, `test_isa_accounting.py` 12, `test_lifetime_isa_capital.py` 3, `test_mixed_age_couple_properties.py` 1, `test_pension_credit_reported_capital_properties.py` 4, `test_process_time_reforms.py` 71, `test_sdlt_counted_once_properties.py` 1, `test_uc_income_from_capital_properties.py` 6, `test_uc_legacy_closure_properties.py` 4, `test_uc_single_claim_properties.py` 8, `test_wealth_components.py` 3, `test_wealth_tax_net_base_properties.py` 2, `test_weighted_incidence.py` 19 | 377 passed |
| `uv run policyengine-core test -c policyengine_uk` on `capital_valuation.yaml` 26, `capital_valuation_share_split.yaml` 10, `cash_isa_capital.yaml` 8, `lifetime_isa_capital.yaml` 24, `isa_balances.yaml` 2, and the `*capital*.yaml` files under ESA 13, HB 22, IS 13, JSA 12, UC 22, PC 9 and `household/wealth` 6 | 167 passed |
| `uv run pytest -n 4 policyengine_uk/tests/code_health` | 3,113 passed |
| `.github/check_fix_pr.py` on this title and body, with the changes from `b4e872273` to the head | `Fix evidence: PASS`, "Changed executable tests: 6" |
| `uvx ruff@0.17.2 format --check .` / `check .` / `check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk` | 2,180 files already formatted / all checks passed / all checks passed |
| `git diff --check 6a0d26d61..HEAD` | clean |
| `git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD origin/main` (`52b30809f`) | clean |
| `git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD af3758c64` (#2779) | conflict in `docs/book/assumptions/growthfactors.md` only |

We ran each mutant with Hypothesis shrinking off, except where the table says otherwise:

| Mutant | Commit | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Stocks and shares ISAs back under the 10% | `2f1051e9f` | killed: all 7 selected ISA-balance tests and all 3 selected share-component tests fail |
| `HOLDINGS_SOURCE` on all of `share_like_capital` | `2f1051e9f` | killed: the regulation 77 test fails |
| Income-based JSA's capital list drops the part without sale expenses | `2f1051e9f` | killed: the JSA list test, the valuation-by-type property (£7,600 against £15,600) and the JSA ISA-balance test (£4,000 against £6,000) fail |
| No floor at nil | `6a0d26d61` | killed: the floor case and its `@example` find −£0.009765625 with sale expenses |
| No branch for households that itemise nothing | `6a0d26d61` | killed: UC capital of £5,999.00 against £5,999.20 for £6,001 of savings and −£2 of `corporate_wealth` |
| `stocks_and_shares_isa` dropped from `gov.dwp.share_like_capital.without_sale_expenses`, run on the stored-totals node (a fixed case, no Hypothesis) | `ce91e92ea` | killed: `assert np.float64(5800.0) == 6000.0 ± 0.06`, 2025 |

Earlier runs, each labelled with its commit:

| Check | Commit | Result |
|---|---|---|
| CI Python tests, six shards ([run 41246639348](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/actions/runs/41246639348)) | `6a0d26d61` | 11,425 passed, 61 skipped, 2 xfailed |
| CI YAML tests, same run | `6a0d26d61` | 5,451 passed |
| CI lint, documentation build, release build and smoke imports on Python 3.11 to 3.14, same run | `6a0d26d61` | passed |
| CI Python and YAML tests ([run 41225440409](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/actions/runs/41225440409)) | `2f1051e9f` | 11,424 passed, 61 skipped, 2 xfailed; 5,451 YAML cases passed |
| Aggregate impact against `3a3241cf6` ([run 41225446226](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/actions/runs/41225446226)) | `2f1051e9f` | no change in any year |
| Differential against `3a3241cf6` for 400 households that don't itemise: each programme's assessable capital and award, UC eligibility and the UC company-holding variables in 2025, 2026 and 2027, and UC capital, eligibility and award in January 2026 (58 outputs, 27,616 values) | `2f1051e9f` | identical |
| `test_isa_balances.py`, `test_wealth_components.py`, `test_isa_accounting.py`, `test_lifetime_isa_capital.py`, `test_uc_property_capital_mock.py`, `test_uc_company_override_properties.py`, `test_uc_company_owner_axiom_parity.py` | `ce360946a` | 67 passed |
| `code_health/test_ci_test_shards.py`, `test_stock_capital_periods.py` | `6a0d26d61` | 54 passed |
| YAML: `capital_valuation_share_split.yaml`, `cash_isa_capital.yaml`, `isa_balances.yaml`, `lifetime_isa_capital.yaml` | `6a0d26d61` | 44 passed |
| `ruff format --check`, `ruff check`, `--select F811,F821`, `git diff --check` | `6a0d26d61` | clean |

`ce360946a` differs from `2f1051e9f` only in `shard_durations.toml`, and `6a0d26d61` adds the floor case to `test_capital_share_components.py`. CI at `6a0d26d61` passed every case in these files:

| File | Passed |
|---|---:|
| `test_capital_share_components.py` | 22 |
| `test_capital_valuation_properties.py` | 18 |
| `test_uc_property_capital.py` | 65 |
| `test_uc_company_owner_properties.py` | 7 |
| `test_uc_tax_free_childcare_choice.py` | 20 |
| `test_input_records.py` | 11 |
| `test_fiscal_partition.py` | 43 |

CI also passed the 70 cases in `capital_valuation.yaml`, `lifetime_isa_capital.yaml`, `capital_valuation_share_split.yaml`, `cash_isa_capital.yaml` and `isa_balances.yaml` at `6a0d26d61`.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#395 queued

We added the asset-type distinction and hand-computed companion cases to the issue (https://github.com/TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk/issues/395#issuecomment-5979237567).

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[MaxGhenis]

Ready for hub review

Head ce91e92ea9d2d7c7025d932ba613438bf4a70a8d on branch claude/restack-2131-isas-growth-y23axr (the harness pins pushes to claude/...). It starts from 6a0d26d618e018d673e23adaaf777cbd2a498d35 and adds two commits:

• ee325c5d merges Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969 at b4e872273c4695cf728d0d2811670b7300504ba4;
• ce91e92e changes the stored-totals test.

I pushed nothing to sale-expense-share-split or uc-capital-sale-expenses, and opened no PR, so no CI has run. The title and body above are the hub documents for this head.

Before starting (07:41Z), I checked the branches and comments. sale-expense-share-split was last pushed on 31 Oct at 21:53Z. The last comment on #2131 was the draft note from 2 Nov at 20:26Z. On #1969, the latest activity was the hub's merge at 06:15Z and the review at 07:23Z, and no comment there says anyone is mid-change.

Findings and resolutions

1. Merge of #1969 (ee325c5d). Git merged b4e872273 without conflict. Here is what each of #1969's first-parent commits in 3a3241cf6..b4e872273 changes, against the split's inputs:

• ba4de95d6 (merges main at 0080274d7). It brings in main's test_stored_household_totals.py, and Simulation growing stored household totals past PROJECTION_END_YEAR. It rewrites only the documentation strings of cash_isa.py, stocks_and_shares_isa.py and household_lifetime_isa_balance.py; no formula changes. It also adds owned_land_secured_debt under per_capita.gdp in uprating_indices.yaml. It touches none of these:

  • the capital sources or sale_expenses/sources lists;
  • share_like_capital or valued_capital;
  • the UC company-holding variables;
  • test_isa_balances.py, test_capital_share_components.py or test_capital_valuation_properties.py.

  git diff --stat 3a3241cf6 b4e872273 over parameters/gov/dwp, utils/capital_valuation.py, variables/gov/dwp/universal_credit, share_like_capital.py, those three tests and shard_durations.toml lists only state_pension files.

  The new stored-totals test reads stocks_and_shares_isa as a stored total, and this PR's split moves that total into share_like_capital_without_sale_expenses. That interaction is the one inconsistency the merge left (finding 2).

• c11d7c1d9 changes only test_stored_household_totals.py, to expect the 10% off the ISA. Finding 2 covers it.

• b4e872273 (merges main at 52b30809f) changes no file the split reads or tests. Its only hand-resolved hunk sits in supplied_inputs.py.

The merge kept this branch's shard_durations.toml. It names test_unitemised_inputs_match_the_lists_before_itemising (line 16), and code_health passes.

2. Stored-totals test (ce91e92e, policyengine_uk/tests/test_stored_household_totals.py:219-233).

• The UC capital assertion now expects savings plus the stored cash ISA plus the stored stocks-and-shares ISA at face value. It also expects 6 × savings in every year from 2025 to 2040.
• I dropped the read of sale_expenses.rate and the capital < face_value - 0.01 check.
• The ratio check stays, unchanged.
• The comment now gives this PR's rule and its source: an ISA counts at its withdrawal value, with no deduction for expenses of sale (ADM H1656), through share_like_capital_without_sale_expenses. That is the source test_isa_balances.py:66 cites.
• from policyengine_core.periods import period stays, because other tests in the file use it.

3. #2779's growth-factors page. git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD af3758c64 conflicts in docs/book/assumptions/growthfactors.md only.

• Bring the growth factors page into line with the uprating map #2779's per capita GDP list (its line 109) already names non_residential_property_secured_debt and other_residential_property_secured_debt.
• It lacks owned_land_secured_debt.
• Once Bring the growth factors page into line with the uprating map #2779 lands on main, this PR's page edit becomes one insertion: `owned_land_secured_debt`, after `owned_land`, in that sentence.
• The page gives no count of these variables, and no other sentence names the three inputs, so nothing else changes.

Against uprating_indices.yaml at the head, all three names sit under gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.per_capita.gdp, at lines 135, 136 and 140.

• The first two exist on main at 52b30809f. owned_land_secured_debt comes from Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969.
• The yaml's per_capita.gdp list has 42 names and Bring the growth factors page into line with the uprating map #2779's sentence has 41. The only one in the yaml and not in Bring the growth factors page into line with the uprating map #2779 is owned_land_secured_debt, and Bring the growth factors page into line with the uprating map #2779 names nothing the yaml lacks.

4. Body.

• The stack paragraph now gives Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969's head b4e872273, and main at 52b30809f through Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969.
• I added a paragraph on the stored-totals test under "Stocks and shares ISAs", and an invariant for it.
• I added a paragraph on Bring the growth factors page into line with the uprating map #2779 under "Growth factors page".
• I added the "Local runs at ce91e92ea…" table and a mutant row.
• I kept the earlier CI and local runs as "Earlier runs, each labelled with its commit".
• The title is unchanged (69 characters).
• The be-verb grep finds no hits.

Tests at ce91e92e

I ran these with uv sync --frozen --extra dev, with HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN and POLICYENGINE_UK_DEFAULT_DATASET unset, using -p no:cacheprovider. Every run passed with no failures, errors or skips.

Command	Result
pytest -n 4 test_stored_household_totals.py	42 passed (184 s)
test_isa_balances.py	8 passed
test_capital_valuation_properties.py	18 passed (276 s)
test_stock_capital_periods.py	3 passed
test_uc_company_owner_properties.py	7 passed
test_uc_company_override_properties.py	11 passed
test_uc_property_capital.py	65 passed
test_uc_property_capital_mock.py	26 passed
test_capital_share_components.py::test_unitemised_inputs_match_the_lists_before_itemising, on its own, under timeout 2400	1 passed (1,791 s); did not stop
test_capital_share_components.py, deselecting that node, -n 4	21 passed (571 s)
Other files naming the five variables, -n 4 per file: test_uc_capital_allocation.py 1, test_benunit_reported_capital_properties.py 7, test_corporate_land_value.py 4, test_corporate_receipts_statistics.py 141, test_dataframe_dataset.py 90, test_isa_accounting.py 12, test_lifetime_isa_capital.py 3, test_mixed_age_couple_properties.py 1, test_pension_credit_reported_capital_properties.py 4, test_process_time_reforms.py 71, test_sdlt_counted_once_properties.py 1, test_uc_income_from_capital_properties.py 6, test_uc_legacy_closure_properties.py 4, test_uc_single_claim_properties.py 8, test_wealth_components.py 3, test_wealth_tax_net_base_properties.py 2, test_weighted_incidence.py 19	377 passed
policyengine-core test: capital_valuation.yaml 26, capital_valuation_share_split.yaml 10, cash_isa_capital.yaml 8, lifetime_isa_capital.yaml 24, household/wealth/isa_balances.yaml 2	70 passed
policyengine-core test, the other *capital*.yaml files: ESA esa_income_capital 10 and legacy_capital 3; HB housing_benefit_capital 13, housing_benefit_residential_capital 7 and legacy_capital 2; IS income_support_capital 10 and legacy_capital 3; JSA jsa_income_capital 9 and legacy_capital 3; UC uc_income_from_capital 7, uc_assessable_capital 6 and gov/dwp/universal_credit/uc_property_capital 9; PC pension_credit_reported_capital 9; household/wealth/benunit_reported_capital 6	97 passed
pytest -n 4 policyengine_uk/tests/code_health	3,113 passed (234 s)
.github/check_fix_pr.py on the posted title and body, label ci-recheck, changes git diff --name-status --no-renames -z b4e872273 HEAD, --head-sha ce91e92e…	Fix evidence: PASS — "Changed executable tests: 6."
uvx ruff@0.17.2 format --check . / check . / check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk	2,180 files already formatted / All checks passed / All checks passed
git diff --check 6a0d26d61..HEAD	clean
git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD origin/main (52b30809f, unchanged since the brief)	clean, tree 427e7bb71
git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD af3758c64	conflict in docs/book/assumptions/growthfactors.md only

test_isa_balances.py gives 8 here. The brief's review counted 8 on its scratch merge, and #1969's head has 2.

Mutation check

I made a scratch worktree at ce91e92e and removed - stocks_and_shares_isa from policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/share_like_capital/without_sale_expenses.yaml. I confirmed that policyengine_uk.__file__ resolved to the worktree. test_stored_household_totals_grow_past_the_projection_horizon then failed: AssertionError: 2025, assert np.float64(5800.0) == 6000.0 ± 0.06. I restored the file with git checkout, and git status --short came back empty.

Judgment calls

• The long node's name. The brief names test_capital_share_components.py::test_capital_matches_the_original_lists, which is Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969's name for it. At this head pytest reports "not found". This PR renamed that test test_unitemised_inputs_match_the_lists_before_itemising (2f1051e9f), with the same 1,299 s line in shard_durations.toml. I ran the renamed node on its own instead.
• Extra YAML files. I ran cash_isa_capital.yaml, lifetime_isa_capital.yaml (both under gov/dwp, not a programme directory) and household/wealth/isa_balances.yaml with the YAML set, because the body cites them. I left out the four capital_gains_tax YAML files under HMRC.
• No YAML changes since b4e872273. This PR adds no YAML test, and changes none, beyond capital_valuation_share_split.yaml.
• The owned_land_secured_debt page entry. I left it in this PR's page edit, as Value share-like capital by asset type for the sale-expense deduction #2131 already had it. The name comes from Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969's uprating change, so whichever PR lands second resolves the Bring the growth factors page into line with the uprating map #2779 conflict with the one-name insertion above.
• "Changed executable tests". I ran check_fix_pr.py with changes from b4e872273, as the brief asks, so it counts 6. Against Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt #1969's branch it would count this PR's full changes.

Skipped

• Nothing needed a survey dataset.
• I didn't rerun the earlier aggregate-impact or differential checks. The body keeps them, labelled 2f1051e9f.
• I didn't run the full suite. CI hasn't run on this head, because the branch has no PR.

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